I am going to call it. Jeff Flake will not vote to confirm along with at least one other Republican Senator. Kavanaugh will not be confirmed to the SC and is at risk of loosing his current appointment.
It appears that many other Republicans Senators have their reservations too, but don't want trump targeting them as traitors in tweets and at rallies. They want other senators to be the Republican bad guys so they don't have too. And Privately nearly all Republicans in congress feel there are better conservative judges that can get confirmed without controversy, so they know the best move is to find a better conservative candidate. And its almost certain the investigation into Kavanaugh will not end if he makes it to the SC. Afterwards, as more dirt and victims are made public, Republicans would be blamed for pushing hard for a SC Justice that has attacked women... Just think about Kavanaugh ruling on Women issues after it has been factually exposed to have attack one or more women. It's likely that current SC justices don't want Kavanaugh either.
Bold call, I like it!
I will also make a stab at a call. Although I very much hope you're right, I think he will be confirmed. I think Flake will vote no, but Collins will vote yes. I think Murkowski has more of a potential for voting no, and actually might do that, due to other issues going on in her state regarding native Americans, but ultimately I think she will be pressured into a yes also. Heitcamp and Manchin will be forced into a no, due to the fact their polls are dropping in their respective states in the last week.
I do agree with the rest of your post, and most R's would be happy if they could turn back the clock and put through another nominee, since K's such a poor choice. I think he will end up going through, the bottom line being that R's will not chance that they don't get another chance of getting a conservative nominee, since the midterms could blast them out. I think the R's are more afraid of losing this chance than they are afraid of the potential backlash they will get in the midterms. One midterm compared to decades of a conservative court is a small trade off in their eyes.
As a woman who feels absolutely certain K will do everything he can to ensure he overturns Roe, I have an such an emotional stake in this, and now I also feel certain K will remain vindictive enough to ensure he really 'sticks' it to Dems and liberals in any way he can, for as long as he can. It's absolutely frightening to the point of keeping me up at night of what Trump will be able to accomplish and hide from with him on the SC. I'd bet anything that the SC justices are in fact dreading his confirmation, with the exception of Thomas, possibly, since the spotlight will be less on him from here on out on the allegation issue.
Anyone else care to take a stab how the keys senators will vote?