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What will happen in 2016?

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  • Dutch
    2013-05-16 11:37:11 AM
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    The news is right now not very good related to a 2016 election win; sorry to say we as Democrats can't jump for joy right now.
    There are several issues which probably drag on forever, which Obama does not get done as well as new Tea Party (tax issue), Beghazi onslaught etc.
    First of all these are the issues which bog down any progress:
    1) Quatanomo Bay closure- no progress
    2) Gun control- no progress
    3) Sequester/Budget control- bogged down
    4) Aghanistan war continues at enormous cost
    5) Immigration reform- no progress
    6) Obama care- corruption- etc. paint a bad picture

    On top of that slow progress in the economy. Election of Stanford (SC) instead of Democrat etc. etc.

    I'm affraid if we continue on this track the Repub's will win in 2016, why? Because if the "Tea Party" (read the religeous right John Birch Club) can stop all of the above, then they must have a lot of power as well to stop a Democratic win in 2016.
    Looking at candidates we have to few well known who could be running; Hillary would do fine, but I doubt if she wants to run. Then we have a huge gap before we know who is the next best. So Please come with suggestions. Sorry but at present things do not look good at all.
  • Dragon
    2013-05-16 12:31:53 PM
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    Dutch Wrote: The news is right now not very good related to a 2016 election win; sorry to say we as Democrats can't jump for joy right now.
    There are several issues which probably drag on forever, which Obama does not get done as well as new Tea Party (tax issue), Beghazi onslaught etc.
    First of all these are the issues which bog down any progress:
    1) Quatanomo Bay closure- no progress
    2) Gun control- no progress
    3) Sequester/Budget control- bogged down
    4) Aghanistan war continues at enormous cost
    5) Immigration reform- no progress
    6) Obama care- corruption- etc. paint a bad picture

    On top of that slow progress in the economy. Election of Stanford (SC) instead of Democrat etc. etc.

    I'm affraid if we continue on this track the Repub's will win in 2016, why? Because if the "Tea Party" (read the religeous right John Birch Club) can stop all of the above, then they must have a lot of power as well to stop a Democratic win in 2016.
    Looking at candidates we have to few well known who could be running; Hillary would do fine, but I doubt if she wants to run. Then we have a huge gap before we know who is the next best. So Please come with suggestions. Sorry but at present things do not look good at all.
    #s 1, 2, 4, 5 are situations that would could only stay the same or get worse with the election of Republicans. It would be risky for the GOP to spend too much capital on discussing these.

    #3 isn't going to change no matter who's running the show. It's not possible to cut spending significantly nor long term.

    #6 won't be an issue the GOP will want to bring up because the greater part of Obamacare will have been put in place and people have adjusted to it. Many of benefited from it and fewer would want it substantially altered. They can complain about the short-term cost, but the Dems have sufficient argument to balance that.

    The only way the GOP could make hay out of any of these issues to to flat-out lie about them and we're already accustomed to that and take that into consideration. Only the most gullible will fall for that and they're already Republican voters.

    The Tea Party will retain most of its seats in the House. The voters in districts that elect them aren't going to get less extreme. How the rest of the House and a third of the Senate will end up depends pretty much on the Democratic campaigns. The GOP can't campaign any differently than they did in '12 and they didn't win over any new voters then. They have no new surprises and the Dems have plenty of time to make their case come campaign season.

    Harry Reid lost my vote already in '16, I'm sorry to say. His position on the background checks was a deal breaker for me. If someone acceptable runs against him in the primary who says he would have voted differently on that, I'll likely choose him. If not, I may not vote in that race.

    The 15 Minutes of Fame issues currently being exploited in the media like Benghazi and IRS scrutiny of likely tax cheats will be long over by the '16 election, as will several others between now and then. IMO, the White House is Hillary's to lose no matter who runs against her, a conservative or a Republican running as a Democrat Lite in sheep's clothing. Just as in 2000 and 2008, the GOP has nothing of substance to run on and it would have to be an extraordinary job of salesmanship to overcome that, again.
  • Dragon
    2013-05-16 12:43:36 PM
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    BTW, I think 2016 will be the GOP's last realistic shot at the White House. Due to the rapidly increasing numbers of Hispanics and young people in Texas, who overwhelmingly support the Democratic Party, by 2024 the state will likely have turned blue. Without Texas it would be almost impossible to elect a Republican candidate to the presidency. It would be like a Democrat winning without California.

    The GOP has ten years to devote as much energy as possible in wooing those two groups into the Republican camp, but with its legacy and the fact that young people today are better informed than ever, I don't think it's possible for the GOP to reinvent itself enough in Texas to grab these new voters without alienating possible Republican voters everywhere else.

    They've boxed themselves in with their inflexible, ideologically pure positions. It's too late now to come back with a "We didn't mean it. We weren't being honest about ourselves before but you can believe us now" campaign.
  • Dutch
    2013-05-16 05:25:59 PM
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    Dragon Wrote: BTW, I think 2016 will be the GOP's last realistic shot at the White House. Due to the rapidly increasing numbers of Hispanics and young people in Texas, who overwhelmingly support the Democratic Party, by 2024 the state will likely have turned blue. Without Texas it would be almost impossible to elect a Republican candidate to the presidency. It would be like a Democrat winning without California.

    The GOP has ten years to devote as much energy as possible in wooing those two groups into the Republican camp, but with its legacy and the fact that young people today are better informed than ever, I don't think it's possible for the GOP to reinvent itself enough in Texas to grab these new voters without alienating possible Republican voters everywhere else.

    They've boxed themselves in with their inflexible, ideologically pure positions. It's too late now to come back with a "We didn't mean it. We weren't being honest about ourselves before but you can believe us now" campaign.
    Sure I agree with you; I do not like "them" either but we (Obama and his staff) have to work very hard in order not to get snowed under in all these things I mentioned. Sure we can easily say they are wrong and screw things up, however there are things happening now of which little leadership is shown. I just saw on the news that there is a possible approval to arm the rebels in Syria; huge mistake!!!
  • GemsWoven
    2013-05-16 05:31:49 PM
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    The Cubbies win the series.
    Miss Teen U.S.A. announces she is really a cute boy.
    Republicans run through the streets waving white flags in one hand and a firearm in the other while clutching a bible in their teeth.
  • Dutch
    2013-05-16 05:45:50 PM
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    GemsWoven Wrote: The Cubbies win the series.
    Miss Teen U.S.A. announces she is really a cute boy.
    Republicans run through the streets waving white flags in one hand and a firearm in the other while clutching a bible in their teeth.
    Gems; great answer; however how many nuts are there who indeed think that way; there lies the danger.!!!
  • GemsWoven
    2013-05-16 05:50:31 PM
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    After Bush we lected a blackman, well half black, with a Muslim name. And look what happened. If we do something similar then the nutters will need more than the docs can hand out.
  • jamesn
    2013-05-16 09:53:32 PM
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    Dutch you bring up some good points but just remember...2016 is 3 1/2 years away.

    Many things will happen between now and then, both good and bad. The most important things are the economy, Hillary, and a major terrorism attack on American soil. If the economy continues to improve, no major terrorism attacks on American soil, and if Hillary will run then we should be OK.

    If any of these three things does not happen then all bets are off.

    American politics run in cycles. The Repubs best hope now is that bad things happen, Hillary does not run, and voters vote AGAINST the incumbunt Democrats more than they vote FOR the Repub, whoever that may be.

    American voters elected Nixon and GW Bush twice so you never know...
  • Leftofcenter
    2013-05-18 11:40:02 AM
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    Let me take a contrarian view. If Hillary is nominated there is a fair chance that the Dems will lose. But if the Repubs win there will no longer be any doubt that we are a nation of imbeciles. The number one issue will be the economy followed by immigration if nothing is done about it by that time. I don't offer this scenario with any great certainty, like most of the other gurus here, but I think it's as good a guess as any.
  • GemsWoven
    2013-05-18 11:52:43 AM
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    The way the Republicans are going regarding immigration and the economy the Democrats could run Pluto and we would win. A cartoon dog is better than a flat Earther nominated by the Republicans. Why would Hillary be a bad choice? Age may be a factor why she doesn't run, but then we elected Reagan.

    Unless the Republicans get control of the TeaParty and the Libertarian element they can offer nothing but a jumbled message.
  • johnnycee
    2013-05-18 12:32:41 PM
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    Unless of course the Tea Party and the Libertarians take control of the Republican Party, and given the current state of events that could happen, and that event would really divide this Nation even further.
  • jamesn
    2013-05-18 01:47:49 PM
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    Leftofcenter who else have you got in mind? Hillary has got the most experience/qualifications and name recognition. We are so far away from the election that we don't even know if she'll run and may not know for at least another year, but at this point...who's better?

    Not many of us had even heard of Obama 3 1/2 years before the 2008 election so maybe there's someone else out there for 2016, but who?

    ..."a nation of imbeciles"... maybe so, after all we reelected GW Bush.
  • pr
    2013-05-18 07:34:01 PM
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    Hillary will win and the Tea Party will fall overboard
  • Zach F
    2013-05-19 03:21:30 AM
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    Dragon Wrote: BTW, I think 2016 will be the GOP's last realistic shot at the White House. Due to the rapidly increasing numbers of Hispanics and young people in Texas, who overwhelmingly support the Democratic Party, by 2024 the state will likely have turned blue. Without Texas it would be almost impossible to elect a Republican candidate to the presidency. It would be like a Democrat winning without California.

    The GOP has ten years to devote as much energy as possible in wooing those two groups into the Republican camp, but with its legacy and the fact that young people today are better informed than ever, I don't think it's possible for the GOP to reinvent itself enough in Texas to grab these new voters without alienating possible Republican voters everywhere else.

    They've boxed themselves in with their inflexible, ideologically pure positions. It's too late now to come back with a "We didn't mean it. We weren't being honest about ourselves before but you can believe us now" campaign.
    Could not agree with this more. I was raised in Texas and to vote red. In 2000 I was only 17 and could not vote in the presidential election but I started paying attention to politics at that time and doing a lot of research into it. I told my mom that I don't see how anyone could vote for Bush, have you read about this guy. She was very upset with me and gave me a short, emotional lecture about how Democrats are useless. I asked her what about the issues. She didn't really know enough to continue and we stopped talking about it.

    Now she agrees that the Bush presidency was a disgrace and he was a terrible commander in chief. I asked her "If you could go back in time, know what you know now, would you still vote for Bush." She say yes, but Democrats are useless.

    But living in Texas now, I encounter more people who can't stand the GOP. Even those who have red all their lives are saying that the GOP is just a party of crazy extremists. I don't think Texas will be blue in 2016 but maybe in 2020 or 2022.
  • Dragon
    2013-05-19 08:58:44 AM
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    Once Texas goes blue that will pretty much protect the White House from the GOP. They will still be a presence in the House and Senate representing rural states and pockets within the others, but with a series of Democrats in the WH the damage the GOP can do overtly will be limited. The shuffling of seats in congress one election cycle to the next will give us periods of Dem control interspersed with periods where little of benefit to the country gets done.

    The likelihood of a repeat of 2001-2006, where the Republicans were handed the country on a silver platter and promptly damn near destroyed it will be very, very small. Even if that's the most we can hope for, it's a great thing. That'll give us the breathing room we need to make sure the Democratic Party truly represents the path Americans want to take as we strive to make our country the best it can be.
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