What will happen in 2016?
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The news is right now not very good related to a 2016 election win; sorry to say we as Democrats can't jump for joy right now.
There are several issues which probably drag on forever, which Obama does not get done as well as new Tea Party (tax issue), Beghazi onslaught etc.
First of all these are the issues which bog down any progress:
1) Quatanomo Bay closure- no progress
2) Gun control- no progress
3) Sequester/Budget control- bogged down
4) Aghanistan war continues at enormous cost
5) Immigration reform- no progress
6) Obama care- corruption- etc. paint a bad picture
On top of that slow progress in the economy. Election of Stanford (SC) instead of Democrat etc. etc.
I'm affraid if we continue on this track the Repub's will win in 2016, why? Because if the "Tea Party" (read the religeous right John Birch Club) can stop all of the above, then they must have a lot of power as well to stop a Democratic win in 2016.
Looking at candidates we have to few well known who could be running; Hillary would do fine, but I doubt if she wants to run. Then we have a huge gap before we know who is the next best. So Please come with suggestions. Sorry but at present things do not look good at all.
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Democrat
Mojave Desert, NV
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Dutch Wrote: The news is right now not very good related to a 2016 election win; sorry to say we as Democrats can't jump for joy right now.
There are several issues which probably drag on forever, which Obama does not get done as well as new Tea Party (tax issue), Beghazi onslaught etc.
First of all these are the issues which bog down any progress:
1) Quatanomo Bay closure- no progress
2) Gun control- no progress
3) Sequester/Budget control- bogged down
4) Aghanistan war continues at enormous cost
5) Immigration reform- no progress
6) Obama care- corruption- etc. paint a bad picture
On top of that slow progress in the economy. Election of Stanford (SC) instead of Democrat etc. etc.
I'm affraid if we continue on this track the Repub's will win in 2016, why? Because if the "Tea Party" (read the religeous right John Birch Club) can stop all of the above, then they must have a lot of power as well to stop a Democratic win in 2016.
Looking at candidates we have to few well known who could be running; Hillary would do fine, but I doubt if she wants to run. Then we have a huge gap before we know who is the next best. So Please come with suggestions. Sorry but at present things do not look good at all. #s 1, 2, 4, 5 are situations that would could only stay the same or get worse with the election of Republicans. It would be risky for the GOP to spend too much capital on discussing these.
#3 isn't going to change no matter who's running the show. It's not possible to cut spending significantly nor long term.
#6 won't be an issue the GOP will want to bring up because the greater part of Obamacare will have been put in place and people have adjusted to it. Many of benefited from it and fewer would want it substantially altered. They can complain about the short-term cost, but the Dems have sufficient argument to balance that.
The only way the GOP could make hay out of any of these issues to to flat-out lie about them and we're already accustomed to that and take that into consideration. Only the most gullible will fall for that and they're already Republican voters.
The Tea Party will retain most of its seats in the House. The voters in districts that elect them aren't going to get less extreme. How the rest of the House and a third of the Senate will end up depends pretty much on the Democratic campaigns. The GOP can't campaign any differently than they did in '12 and they didn't win over any new voters then. They have no new surprises and the Dems have plenty of time to make their case come campaign season.
Harry Reid lost my vote already in '16, I'm sorry to say. His position on the background checks was a deal breaker for me. If someone acceptable runs against him in the primary who says he would have voted differently on that, I'll likely choose him. If not, I may not vote in that race.
The 15 Minutes of Fame issues currently being exploited in the media like Benghazi and IRS scrutiny of likely tax cheats will be long over by the '16 election, as will several others between now and then. IMO, the White House is Hillary's to lose no matter who runs against her, a conservative or a Republican running as a Democrat Lite in sheep's clothing. Just as in 2000 and 2008, the GOP has nothing of substance to run on and it would have to be an extraordinary job of salesmanship to overcome that, again.
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Democrat
Mojave Desert, NV
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Dutch you bring up some good points but just remember...2016 is 3 1/2 years away.
Many things will happen between now and then, both good and bad. The most important things are the economy, Hillary, and a major terrorism attack on American soil. If the economy continues to improve, no major terrorism attacks on American soil, and if Hillary will run then we should be OK.
If any of these three things does not happen then all bets are off.
American politics run in cycles. The Repubs best hope now is that bad things happen, Hillary does not run, and voters vote AGAINST the incumbunt Democrats more than they vote FOR the Repub, whoever that may be.
American voters elected Nixon and GW Bush twice so you never know...
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Dragon Wrote: BTW, I think 2016 will be the GOP's last realistic shot at the White House. Due to the rapidly increasing numbers of Hispanics and young people in Texas, who overwhelmingly support the Democratic Party, by 2024 the state will likely have turned blue. Without Texas it would be almost impossible to elect a Republican candidate to the presidency. It would be like a Democrat winning without California.
The GOP has ten years to devote as much energy as possible in wooing those two groups into the Republican camp, but with its legacy and the fact that young people today are better informed than ever, I don't think it's possible for the GOP to reinvent itself enough in Texas to grab these new voters without alienating possible Republican voters everywhere else.
They've boxed themselves in with their inflexible, ideologically pure positions. It's too late now to come back with a "We didn't mean it. We weren't being honest about ourselves before but you can believe us now" campaign. Could not agree with this more. I was raised in Texas and to vote red. In 2000 I was only 17 and could not vote in the presidential election but I started paying attention to politics at that time and doing a lot of research into it. I told my mom that I don't see how anyone could vote for Bush, have you read about this guy. She was very upset with me and gave me a short, emotional lecture about how Democrats are useless. I asked her what about the issues. She didn't really know enough to continue and we stopped talking about it.
Now she agrees that the Bush presidency was a disgrace and he was a terrible commander in chief. I asked her "If you could go back in time, know what you know now, would you still vote for Bush." She say yes, but Democrats are useless.
But living in Texas now, I encounter more people who can't stand the GOP. Even those who have red all their lives are saying that the GOP is just a party of crazy extremists. I don't think Texas will be blue in 2016 but maybe in 2020 or 2022.
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Democrat
Mojave Desert, NV
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