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Health Care Act rests on Kennedy

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  • Zach F
    2012-06-28 07:07:11 AM
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    Anthony Kennedy is the swing vote in the SCOTUS. Just a few more hours until their decision is announced. Does anyone want to make predictions oh how it will turn out? Unconstitutional? Constitutional? A mixture of both?
  • Schmidt
    2012-06-28 09:06:07 AM
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    I predict a 6-3 vote in favor of everything except the individual mandate.  I think the individual mandate will also be approved or let stand for now, but with some restrictions or clarifications, much like the Arizona "Papers Please Law" was handled by the court.  Part of that caveat may be that the court will decide to review the individual mandate provision again at a later date after it has some history of practice.  That could be a face saver for the conservatives, but in reality, once it's implemented it's much harder to undo. 

    Scalia, Thomas and Alito will vote as a block against.  Kennedy and Roberts will vote with the liberals. Roberts will write the majority opinion.  Scalia will write the minority opinion, or at least one opinion.  If he gets too political like he did with the Arizona law, there may be two or more minority opinions.

    Okay that's my "expert prediction" assuming the six of the justices will follow constitutional law precedent and three will adhere to politics.  I guess we'll find out in exactly one hour or so.
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