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2022 mid-term elections

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    Traditionally, the minority party in mid-term elections gains a few seats from the incumbent majority party.

    For a variety of reasons, I don't think that's going to be the case in 2022, and here's why:

    1) Elections to the U.S. Senate will be held on November 8, 2022, and 34 of the 100 seats are up for regular election. Special elections may be held to fill vacancies that occur in the 117th Congress. Those elected to the U.S. Senate in the 34 regular elections in 2022 will begin their six-year terms on January 3, 2023.

    Fourteen seats held by Democrats and 20 seats held by Republicans are up for election in 2022. Republicans are defending two Senate seats in states Joe Biden (D) won in the 2020 presidential election: Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. Democrats are not defending any Senate seats in states Donald Trump (R) won in 2020.

    Not only are the Republicans defending more seats than the Democrats, they are defending two seats in states that Biden won, and the Democrats are not defending ANY seats in states that Trump won.

    2) 4 Republicans have announced that they are not seeking re-election - Burr (North Carolina) , Shelby (Alabama), Tooney (Pennsylvania), and Portman(Ohio).

    Burr's last election margin was a modest 5.7%, and he is in a reliably red state.

    Shelby's last margin of victory was an impressive 28.1%, but he's been in office since 1987, and it likely just worn out.

    Tooney's last margin of victory was a slender 1.5% - and he lives in a state that Biden won

    Portman's last margin of victory was a safe 20.8% , and he lives in a state that Trump won in 2020,_2022

    3) Although Trump is on trial this week, it's actually the Republican senators who are on trial. If they vote to acquit Trump after the majority of the people in their state saw the 13 minute video played by the Democrats on Monday, they are going to have to do a lot of explaining.

    4) Eleven of the seats up for re-election were decided by less than 10 points the last time the seats were secured. 6 of the 11 are now held by Republicans.

    Republicans gained 10 seats in the House in 2020. Whether they gain or lose is largely dependent on how fast Biden can improve the economy and defeat the coronavirus, but the performance of the House impeachment team may help tip elections more toward the blue team.

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    It's actually not true that wolves eat their young, but it IS true (metaphorically speaking) that the Republicans are eating each other.

    Many of the Republican senators that voted to convict Trump have been censured by the party. Bill Cassidy, in fact, was censured the same night.

    Pat Tooney was censured by his fellow Republicans in Pennsylvania.

    Speaking to KDTV, Washington County Republican Party chair Dave Ball said: “We did not send him there to vote his conscience. We did not send him there to do the right thing, whatever he said he was doing. We sent him there to represent us, and we feel very strongly that he did not represent us.”

    Pardon the French, but that is REALLY a fucked up attitude.

    More than 30,00 Republican voters reportedly quit the GOP in the weeks following the insurrection at the U.S. Capitol on January 6.

    Tens of thousands of voters have become former Republicans this month in states including Pennsylvania, Arizona, North Carolina, Maryland, Colorado and Florida, according to a Wednesday report from The Hill, citing state statistics. A far smaller number of voters dropped affiliation with the Democratic party during the same time.

    In Pennsylvania, almost 10,000 Republicans had parted ways with the GOP by January 25. Of those, 3,476 changed their registration to the Democratic Party, while the rest moved to a third party or remained unaffiliated. The state saw 2,093 Democrats switch to the Republican Party during the same period, while 1,184 become unaffiliated or switched to a third party.

    NPR mentioned today that this trend will likely mean that the Republicans will lose badly in 2022, and the rift between Trump and McConnell is just the latest example.

    Th die hard Trump supporters are not going to change, but there ARE an awful lot of Republicans who agree with the speech that McConnell made on the day of the vote.

    "There is no question, none, that President Trump is practically and morally responsible for provoking the events of the day," he said, and added that Mr. Trump watched the events unfold on television. "A mob was assaulting the Capitol in his name," he said. "These criminals were carrying his banners, hanging his flags and screaming their loyalty to him."

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    The Democrats' best friend in Texas might well be Old Man Winter.

    For the Republicans who have run Texas state government for years, trying to undermine the Democrats who lead the state’s largest cities has been a blood sport for years. They have sought to overrule local officials on disputes involving everything from pandemic restrictions and plastic bag bans to protections for immigrants.

    But this week, the collapse of the state’s power grid gave Democrats a chance to turn the tables.

    Republicans have overseen the Texas energy industry for decades, but Mr. Abbott, along with other prominent Texas conservatives, has sought to deflect responsibility by assigning blame for the storm crisis on renewable energy sources like wind and solar that were hobbled by the cold snap. In an appearance on Fox News, Mr. Abbott asserted that the reliance on wind and solar “thrust Texas into a situation where it was lacking power in a statewide basis.”

    Earlier in the week, Mr. Abbott himself attributed the power failure in part to freezing in natural gas transmission systems. (As Rachel Maddow mentioned last night, the state failed to insulate pipe lines after the freeze of 2011).

    Mr. Abbott appointed all three of the commissioners on the Public Utility Commission of Texas that oversees ERCOT. As for ERCOT itself, the leader of its board does not live in Texas but in Michigan; its vice-chair is a professor who lives in California and teaches at a university in Germany.

    “No one should be pretending that the cause of this catastrophe is some mysterious entity that is somehow detached from state government,” said Representative Chris Turner, leader of the 67 Democrats in the Texas House. “This entire episode represents a catastrophic failure of leadership.”

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    According to a new report from POLITICO, ex-President Donald Trump refused a request from former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley for a meeting this week after the ex-Trump official criticized him — sort of — over his promotion of the lie that the 2020 election was rigged for Joe Biden. Haley “reached out to former President Donald Trump on Wednesday to request a sit-down at Mar-a-Lago, but a source familiar tells Playbook that he turned her down,” POLITICO reported. At Mar-a-Lago, Trump recently met with House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.), who criticized him after last month’s Capitol rioting, but nevertheless, he refused Haley.

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    Two writers in the New York Times this morning suggested that the Democratic Party needs to move more towards the center if they have any hope of holding on to the House and the Senate in future elections.

    However, Jennifer Rubin of the Washington Post has a different opinon.

    She feels that if the Virginia governor's race had been held a week later, after the passage of the $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill and the release of the latest jobs report, the results could have been different.

    I'm of the opinion that Ms. Rubin is more correct.

    You may remember that the Biden administration passed the American Rescue Plan in March with ZERO votes from the Republican Party. However, that did not stop the Republicans claiming that the benefits flowing to their communities was somehow something that the Republicans had created.,help%20them%20pay%20expenses%20during%20the%20COVID-19%20pandemic.

    As highways and bridges start to be repaired across the country, Republicans will again try to get credit. In the case of 13 Republicans, that would be true, but most of them did not vote for the plan.

    To use a phrase that I learned while selling life insurance, you've got to sell the sizzle, not the steak.

    The Democratic Party needs to be more aggressive about the good that he party is doing for the economy rather than trying to downplay the cultural issues. Terry McAuliffe was correct in trying to downplay the CRT nonsense, but he could have done a better job of it. He also should have re-emphasized the benefits that he brought to the state when he was the governor a few years back.

    "Do not go gentle into that good night" was the most famous poem by the later Dylan Thomas. Although it has been suggested that it was written for his dying father, the phrase also describes how the Democrats should act going forward.

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    Your statement: "The Republicans will again to get the credit" is not all of it. They will also run with the "loot". I bet they"will get "richer" from it, not the average person in this country. So it is an win, win, situation for the rich GOP members.

    They won't thank Biden, and via the "gerrymandering" and "voter repression" and other tricks will win in 2022 and 2024.

    Thus in other words Biden did give the GOP an huge X-Mas present.

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    Historically, mid-term elections have not been kind to the party that held the presidency.

    However there are some things that the Democrats can do to improve their chances, which Amber Phillips explained today.

    1) Make Joe Biden more popular

    2) Improve the economy, bring down crime, and fix the border crisis.

    3) Shift the discussions away from culture issues (like CRT) and more to the economy

    4) Fight redistricting.

    None of these things are impossible, and the January 6 investigation, as well as Trump's lawsuits, could help tip the balance.

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    I guess such suggestion fly away into thin air.

    Make Joe Biden more popular is impossible; his ratings are now in the low 40's.

    Improving the economy; that does not work looking at the "stock market" which is tanking now. Also the "virus" will get worse because of the "holidays" and in January it may cause another "lockdown" as they also have in Europe right now.

    The "inflation" is spiking and has an effect on the peoples "wallets" coming year. Guess who gets the blame.

    How are you going to fight "redistricting" when it is already "done" all over?

    "Trump" lawsuits? Wow, keep on dreaming, he keeps on "collecting" instead.

    Sorry Arizona; you are under-estimating what the Trump-GOP has "fabricated" while Biden was "sleeping".

    The VA elections was already an early "warning" for 2022 and 2024.