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If the 2016 election taught us anything, it's the dangers of being complacent, which is why 90 million eligible voters did not vote - and Trump won the election due to 80,000 votes in 3 states.
The Quora Digest published an article on October 19 that should have all of us breathing easier.
It explores a variety of scenarios, but virtually all of them point to a Biden victory.
Here's the first two paragraphs:
- Biden will almost certainly have 226 Electoral Votes before the end of the night; those are the totals of the states that are clearly favored to go to Biden and where he will very likely be far enough ahead where mail-in ballots won’t change it. I included Minnesota and New Hampshire in this total.
- Biden will likely have a strong majority in mail-in ballots, meaning that if he has a lead in a state, that lead is likely to grow…and if he and Trump are tied, Biden is likely to win…and if Biden is only behind Trump by a little, he’s also likely to win.
Here's another key paragraph:
If Biden is ahead at all in Florida, it means that he’s won the election. He’d still be just shy of 270 votes (at 268) on election night, which means that Trump would likely try to muddy the waters…but Florida is such a must-win for Trump that we’d likely have the final result the next day…and the faster we get that confirmation, the less likely it is that Trump can pull shenanigans.
Here's why Trump probably will NOT win Florida:
Trump threw a rally in The Villages in Florida today in a vain attempt to pump some life into his failing campaign. Joe Biden holds a formidable lead ahead of the president with less than ten days till the election. Barring some catastrophic event or mass voter complacency, it looks likely that the former vice president will soon become our 46th president. But Trump refuses to accept that likelihood, hence his continued commitment to throwing COVID-19 superspreader events.
Per usual, the president’s rally rhetoric was a heady connection of incoherence and mendacity, cooked up on demand for a screaming audience whose members long ago untethered themselves from reality and devoted themselves unquestioningly to their idiotic God-king.
Trump attacked Hirono’s support for the Green New Deal and ludicrously claimed that she suggested “building a bridge to Hawaii” to cut back on emissions from airplane travel. The senator of course suggested no such thing, as a 3,758-mile bridge would be nothing less than the greatest architectural feat in human history. The fact that Trump would make such a stupid claim shows you how little he thinks of his supporters’ intelligence. He’s convinced they’ll believe anything he says and unfortunately he’s often correct.
The president wasn’t done lying there, and also made the ridiculous claim that Joe Biden would ban seniors from using air conditioning in the summer and indoor heating in the winter and allow “no electricity during peak hours.” As usual with Trump, the claims were conjured wholesale from the ether without a shred of truth to back them up. Lest anyone take him for anything less than the abject ignoramus he is, Trump then launched a fact-free attack on wind power.