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It's the economy, stupid !


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    The economy, stupid” is a phrase coined by James Carville in 1992.

    It is often quoted from a televised quip by Carville as “It’s the economy, stupid.” Carville was a strategist in Bill Clinton’s successful 1992 presidential campaign against incumbent George H. W. Bush. His phrase was directed at the campaign’s workers and intended as one of three messages for them to focus on. (The less-memorable others were “Change vs. more of the same” and “Don’t forget health care.”)

    Clinton's campaign advantageously used the then-prevailing recession in the United States as one of the campaign's means to successfully unseat George H. W. Bush. In March 1991, days after the ground war in Kuwait, 90% of polled Americans approved of President Bush's job performance. Later the next year, Americans' opinions had turned sharply; 64% of polled Americans disapproved of Bush's job performance in August 1992. On top of all that, Ross Perot ran as a third party candidate, and captured almost 19% of the vote.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/It%27s_the_economy,_stupid

    In December of 1992, the unemployment rate was 7.4%. As of today, it's 10% - and likely to go higher.

    In December 1991, GDP growth was -1%, but had recovered to 3.5% by December of 1992. GDP growth for this year (2020) is likely to be closer to zero. It was 2.1% in the 4th quarter of 2019, but had slowed to 1.5% in the first quarter of 2020, and will definitely go down from there.

    https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-rate-by-year-3305506

    George H.W. Bush's lowest approval rating was 29% in July of 1992.

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx

    Trump's lowest approval rating, 36.5%, happened in December of 2017. Trump's highest approval rating was 47.8% on inauguration day, and has gone down from there.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/

    Another example of how a bad economy can torpedo a re-election bid is the 1980 presidential race. The inflation rate was 12.5%, GDP growth was -.3%, we suffered through another oil embargo in 1979, AND the Iranians were still holding our embassy staff captive in Tehran.

    Jimmy never had a chance.

    If you think that history repeats itself (and it does) it's highly unlikely that Trump will get re-elected.

    According to polling aggregator Real Clear Politics, Biden holds an average lead of 6.1 points over Trump in national polls conducted between March 11 and Tuesday, April 7.

    Biden's lead across various national polls ranges from a 10-point margin over Trump in a Harvard-Harris poll conducted between March 24 and March 26, to just three points separating the two in a Monmouth University poll from the week before.

    https://www.newsweek.com/what-latest-polls-says-about-joe-biden-vs-donald-trump-presidential-matchup-1496902

    ****************

    On the website Daily Kos, Markos Noulitsas had a few encouraging comments about the election. Here's a few key paragraphs:

    " Seven states will decide this election. And if I sound like a broken record, it’s because I want everyone to have these as well-memorized as I do: Arizona, Florida, Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. (The district-based electoral votes in Maine and Nebraska will also matter a huge deal. But it’s hard to say “seven states and two districts.” This system is stupid and confusing enough as it is.)

    So, seven states. That doesn’t mean other states don’t “matter”—they matter up and down the ballot. We must win everywhere. But for purposes of the presidential election, if Trump wins Minnesota or New Hampshire, he’s already won the other seven states. And if Biden wins Texas or Ohio or Iowa, he’s already won those other seven states.

    So how do Trump approvals look in the states that will decide the presidential election? Arizona (44-54), Florida (46-51), Georgia (47-50), Michigan (44-53), North Carolina (44-54), Pennsylvania (46-51), and Wisconsin (46-51)."

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    Nice "history" story. The only thing which was forgotten that we never before had the NY "mafia" in the W.H. It already shows in the Wisconsin election that the Trump Party will use every "trick" and voter suppression to get it their way. In the past elections except 2016, elections were more as it should. But with Trump and his filthy gang members it will be an total "corrupt" election; the signs are already there. Also he will absolute not accept the election results if they are not in his favor. Thus don't even look at the "numbers" it will be just become another huge "bar" fight, with distortion and threats. Remember Trump's past, he's not the same as any other President; he's an NY trained mafia cult type who even as a kid never accepted an "no" and had money to burn because his KKK member Pappy gave him millions; but still made him bankrupt as he's now doing with the country itself.
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    “It’s the economy, stupid!” And it is still ignored as we continue to pledge loyalty to life styles of the rich and famous.

    An economy is trade in goods and services, making something to sell.

    Ignoring the the deliberate abandonment of the economy to the cheaper faster easier road to riches through finesse of secured instruments abandoning labor and making things to sell really highlights “ its the economy , stupid

    But it is totally ignored fearing to upset those that continue to hoard money out of the “economy

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    Chet, don't forget that an downfall of an country is seldom caused by an single thing; it is mostly an combination of different elements, As an example, how did Hitler get his "power" ? Indeed it started with the "economy" ; after WWI Germany (also had an "virus" in 1918) and was trying to climb out of that disaster and then the crash of the 1930's came; the "people" there had nothing at all, let alone work or food; Hitler pushed himself forward as the (catholic) "savior" and promised work and food and promoted the "war" industry ( the same as they do here) also he introduced absolute "loyalty" to him and the "Reich" as well elevated the Nazi party (Just like Trump wants to do with the Trump Party); the war industry started "humming" and gave work and food on the table. The other thing Hitler did was to get rid of the "Jews" ( just like Trump wants to do with "colored/immigrant" people and promote "white" power). Thus like I said, it is how (with what elements) you put an "economy" together is what counts.

    Hitler's economy "crashed" in 1945; the same is going to happen here, if we keep this "copy"of Hitler.

    As an note: The only difference with the 1930's is that the present "virus"' is helping to speed up the recession which was imminent anyway under Trump and if he gets re-elected he may indeed follow the path of Hitler and start wars to keep him in the saddle.

    The French had it right: "L'histoire ce repette"

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    Arizona, all these poll numbers are B.S. the point is we never had an guy like Trump as President who invited/placed all the dumbest assholes into the "system" as well has FOX News as his propaganda "machine".

    Also we never had an President with an NY "mafia" cult elected, who never worked a day in his life and lived on handouts of his pappy and then bankrupted himself over and over again. He has now gathered the "worst" of the "worst' people around him and is very busy with enriching himself and even has arranged murders to cover up his past. His family is as corrupt as he is and he invited those also into the Government.

    Thus looking at this picture, he will use every filthy tool to stay in power, because he's afraid of all the law suits (after he's out) as well his never ending "gold" mine will dry up if he leaves.

    So my conclusion is that he's going to win and will use the "electoral college" again to bribe his way in. (It worked in 2016)

    Indeed certain States are already in "bed" with him such as TX and FL as well the same "red" States as in 2016. He will bribe as crazy with all his stolen money. Amen

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    What is James Carville doing today ? He was a political strategist who was very successful. I would give him a substantial position with great responsibility - yesterday. We have to sharpen our tools because there's one huge battle in less than 7 months. Don't just hope it changes, make it happen.

    States reopening will be mostly in accordance with party affiliation. Sad but a governor who's existence is attached to the will of one spiteful and bitter narcissistic man will try to make their constituents happy with the escape clause of "It's what your president wanted".

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    T,J. It is an bit late to define an"strategy" However Trump has one going. I don't hear or see the Dem's do anything lately, since the impeachment debacle. If I was Pelosi I would immediately start an "new" impeachment" but then with at least 10 subjects (with the 8 which were not dealt with) including the handling of the "virus" thing and the "obstruction" of "absentee votes by mail" and the bribery which he did with the votes for the first "impeachment" . As well the firing of the aircraft carrier Captain and the "oversight IG" . And don't forget that his pockets are still being filled by "wall" money ( and now likely with the "virus" money, since the oversight is likely "gone with the wind)). What is done at all about the "murders" of Epstein and Khashoki ? Will the truth ever come out what Trump did with underage girls at Epstein's resorts.? etc.etc.

    When are the Dem's going to be tough and show an backbone? The "impeachment" circus showed that you have to "count" on that "mafia" bribery tactics are name of the game; so be prepared for that and don't budge. (Chicken Heads! don't win)


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    I expect Dems will quietly sit on their hands and under achieve. Then they'll silently walk away while trying to find a positive. But, but we picked up a governor position in insert obscure state here. Republicans are ready to fight to the death.and Democrats don't even want to argue. Mr. Perez, another 6 months of you doing nearly nothing. Is the team ready to fight and win ?

    I was joking. Expect nothing and you'll be pleased when it arrives.

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    TJ Wrote:

    I expect Dems will quietly sit on their hands and under achieve. Then they'll silently walk away while trying to find a positive. But, but we picked up a governor position in insert obscure state here. Republicans are ready to fight to the death.and Democrats don't even want to argue. Mr. Perez, another 6 months of you doing nearly nothing. Is the team ready to fight and win ?

    I was joking. Expect nothing and you'll be pleased when it arrives.

    The impeachment process didn't work, what would you people attacking Perez, Biden and the DNC suggest with a conservative majority in SCOTUS and a split congress where the senate is a conservative majority?
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    Dock, as I wrote I fear the most. There are lots of things which are pointed out in lots of threads that don't favor Democrats.

    1) Lost the "impeachment" process (no follow up or law suits related to the "bribery" of the GOP votes by Trump)

    2) Lost "oversight" on the 2.2.trillion package ( Trump fired the people doing so; no follow up; so he can "grab" funds for his and family's losses at his golf courses and properties)

    3) Trump's face is everyday on TV; where is Biden?

    4) No "voting" by "mail" (no resistance from the Dem's) Post office goes broke; ( no follow up )

    5) Trump wants "himself" to make the call to "open" the country again (no follow up or protest from the Dem's)

    6) What is happening at the border and the "Pentagon money" Trump "stole" and the "kickbacks for him from the contractors he appointed (no protest from the Dem's)

    7) What is the plan for the elections and where are the add's from the Dem's? ( I've only seen (every day) "add's" if you approve of Trump)

    8) Where is Biden? On vacation by the Pope? Where is Perez? Does he have any clue where this country is heading?)

    9) Who is helping the "Airforce" woman who wants to run against McConnell in Kentucky? (nothing at all from the Dem's to support her)

    There are lots more "items" but I ask the writers on this site to add to the above list.

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    I am certainly critical and cynical. I hate that the government is more concerned about popularity and electability than actual accountability and responsibility for the citizens and taxpayers of this country. I am skeptical of the media and their overall intentions but the slamming them by this administration is rude and offensive. I don't accept political cheerleaders but many do. I watch ABC news for local and national. CBSN streaming which is good quality content and CNN streaming which is constant background filler. Hopefully many continue to read because far too many skim the headlines and consider themselves informed. When Gov. Cuomo comes on daily my wife says be quiet, the president is on tv.
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    I’m not Trump is surrounded by hard core party members. Their prime motivation is to keep their jobs and they do that by making Biden think they are doing every thing possible to make him think he is #1. For proof I submit what they did for Hillary 2016. An audit of Hillary’s campaign would answer all the questions. I’m not Trump will be the 2nd failure that gets to look like they are doing everything possible to help Biden. The limiting factor is the silencing of strategist by Party Loyalist that sound the alarm that strategist are going to cost Biden the election.
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    Dutch Wrote:

    Dock, as I wrote I fear the most. There are lots of things which are pointed out in lots of threads that don't favor Democrats.

    1) Lost the "impeachment" process (no follow up or law suits related to the "bribery" of the GOP votes by Trump)

    2) Lost "oversight" on the 2.2.trillion package ( Trump fired the people doing so; no follow up; so he can "grab" funds for his and family's losses at his golf courses and properties)

    3) Trump's face is everyday on TV; where is Biden?

    4) No "voting" by "mail" (no resistance from the Dem's) Post office goes broke; ( no follow up )

    5) Trump wants "himself" to make the call to "open" the country again (no follow up or protest from the Dem's)

    6) What is happening at the border and the "Pentagon money" Trump "stole" and the "kickbacks for him from the contractors he appointed (no protest from the Dem's)

    7) What is the plan for the elections and where are the add's from the Dem's? ( I've only seen (every day) "add's" if you approve of Trump)

    8) Where is Biden? On vacation by the Pope? Where is Perez? Does he have any clue where this country is heading?)

    9) Who is helping the "Airforce" woman who wants to run against McConnell in Kentucky? (nothing at all from the Dem's to support her)

    There are lots more "items" but I ask the writers on this site to add to the above list.

    If joe lied like don, he'd get plenty of airtime on MSM.
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    One phrase that "pappy" used was "compassionate conservative", and the philosophy was also adopted by his son, George W. Bush.

    If you read the article below, released by the George W. Bush Institute in 2018, you'll quickly realize that the Republican Party of the Bushes no longer exists, and was replaced by the party of Trump, the cruelest administration that we have ever had.

    https://www.bushcenter.org/catalyst/opportunity-road/george-w-bush-on-compassionate-conservatism.html

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    "pappy" is the Dutch word for "daddy" Sorry about that, but "pappy" sounds better to me, because it means a bit of an old obese naive man who does not need the money anymore so give it to the bully brat.