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The economy may.defeat Trump.

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    The potential game changer. The unending Bull market supported with nothing substantial is a bubble. Looking around is a historical reminder/warning of the roaring 20s. Record numbers of billionaires resulting in many foreign cases of special dispensations to developing/third world countries. In the US fortunes are being created from non productive speculative trading. Don’t forget for every billionaire created from the advantaged side of counter party trades is a lost billion dollars. And as the top incomes grow from loopholes and tax cuts more and more money is taken from the lower incomes and the economy. Without a GDP growing and creating good paying jobs there is another bubble. There is no realist saying the economy is safe. All the Dodd-Frank precautions are barely memories as they are ignored replaced by the banks in bigger positions and circumstances preceeding 2008. I hear almost the same mortgage enticements being advertised especially little or no equity requirements. The economy itself may help get rid of Trump. Trumps vengeance itself may hurt. As dictators widen their wrath more and more subjects have reason to worry that they may be next. Hopefully that undermines Trump and they economy hangs on long enough for a Democrat to save it.
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    An ugly and painful recession always follows huge tax cuts. It's just a matter of when it will hit. You can bet your ass that 45 will remind all that he's attributed to great things and bad things are the fault of and caused by those who oppose him. He's a hateful self aggrandizing narcissist who does no wrong. Just ask him. The shit will inevitably hit the fan but he will take zero responsibility.
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    BP Rising, January 20, 2020: Stock Market Is The Titanic And Federal Reserve Is Driving The Ship

    Quoting the article:

    "The Federal Reserve central bank is going absolutely hog wild lately. Its at the point now where their actions are so blatant and obvious that one can only assume it is being done with purposeful intent. With the recent repo operation liquidity injections (billions a day before the market opens) and Q4 Quantitative Easing near the highs, it appears the market is being bailed out to protect the elite interests. As they well know, without interference, the market would sell off immediately. We saw this last year when the Fed started to tighten. The Fed is becoming more and more involved in our market and they are now taking unprecedented measures. These actions are helping to secure the wealth of the top 20% that own stocks, but are doing absolutely nothing for the other 80%. In fact, it is just putting them at greater risk."

    I am not one to get into a discussion of all the factors influencing the market. The above from BP Rising is just one viewpoint. However, I have to admit that the market seems to be propped up, and I wonder how much of it has to do with the 2020 election. Will the Fed change course after the election? Maybe and maybe it depends on who is elected on November 3rd.

    You can read more of their analysis at the above link.

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    Chet, TJ, and Schmidt:

    All of you are a hell a lot smarter than Trump, who is still clueless about the incoming train wreck.

    During one of my "senior moments" I published two articles about this topic with the same title, "those were the days". The first one popped up on 9/8/18, and the second on 8/25/19.

    Heather Cox Richardson also covered the topic again last night. Since she tends to be a bit wordy, I'll just list a couple of her main points:

    "On Monday, Trump will release his 2021 budget. It contains $800 billion worth of cuts in Medicaid over the next decade. On January 22, in an interview on CNBC when he was at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, when pressed on the enormous budget deficits his policies have created—he has added almost $3 trillion to the national debt-- he suggested that he is considering cutting Social Security and Medicare in his second term.

    .... his administration is currently asking the courts to repeal the Affordable Care Act (Obamacare) entirely, a decision the Supreme Court has put off until after the 2020 election.

    These cuts to both social programs and taxes are the end game of a movement that started in the 1930s. It is designed to take American government back to the 1920s, when Republicans led by Herbert Hoover and Calvin Coolidge turned the government over to businessmen in the belief that they alone truly knew what was best for the country

    Republican President Hoover assured Americans that the economy simply needed a self-correction. He refused any large-scale government programs to steady the nation, insisting that such government activism would destroy the “rugged individualism” that lay at the heart of the national character.

    (this is the same argument that Perdue used to justify cutting food stamps).

    His Democratic opponent in the 1932 election disagreed.

    Americans embraced the New Deal programs that helped them find work, offered new Social Security for the elderly and disabled, and built new roads, schools, airports, libraries, roads, and bridges all over the country. When this newly active government went on to fight and win against the Axis Powers in WWII, popular support for the new government system was cemented.

    So secure was it, in fact, that Republicans themselves adopted it. When Dwight Eisenhower entered the White House in 1953, he offered his own version of the New Deal, calling it the “Middle Way”

    (for reference, read the 1956 Republican National Platform )

    But some Hoover Republicans resented government regulation of their businesses...

    This system infringed on their liberty, they insisted. It was socialism.

    It was not socialism, of course; socialism is a system in which the government owns the means of production. The new US system was regulated capitalism,

    They had little luck convincing voters to join them in destroying the popular system. But in 1954, the Brown v. Board of Education Supreme Court decision requiring the desegregation of public schools enabled them to harness racism to their argument.

    Two events the next year caused the African-Americans to be more assertive about their rights.

    On August 28, Emmett Till was murdered in Money Mississippi, but his murderers were not convicted. Then on December 1, Rosa Parks refused to give up her seat on a bus in Montgomery.

    In 1957, the "Little Rock" nine registered to attend a previously all-white school.

    The Greensboro lunch counter sit in occurred in 1960.

    The Freedom Riders started their campaign in 1961.

    Martin Luther King gave his most famous speech on August 28, 1963.

    3 civil rights workers were murdered in Mississippi in 1964.

    The march to Montgomery started from Selma, Alabama in 1965, and the Voting Rights Act was signed on August 6 of the same year.

    In American politics, the Southern strategy was a Republican Party electoral strategy to increase political support among white voters in the South by appealing to racism against African Americans. As the civil rights movement and dismantling of Jim Crow laws in the 1950s and 1960s visibly deepened existing racial tensions in much of the Southern United States, Republican politicians such as presidential candidate Richard Nixon and Senator Barry Goldwater developed strategies that successfully contributed to the political realignment of many white, conservative voters in the South who had traditionally supported the Democratic Party rather than the Republican Party. It also helped to push the Republican Party much more to the right

    (In 1960, the South was still heavily "blue".

    In 1964, the entire country was "blue", except for 5 southeastern states and Arizona.

    In 1968, most of the country was "red" - but Texas was still "blue". George Wallace captured 5 states in the deep South.

    In 1972, the Democrats only won ONE state - Massachusetts.

    In 1976, the Watergate scandal allowed the Democrats to win heavily in the South, as well as the Eastern half of the country.

    In 1980, the Iran embassy takeover, the oil embargo, and hyper inflation turned everything red again.)

    With this appeal to racism, Movement Conservatives broke what had become known as the “liberal consensus.

    At long last, it seems, the dreams of the Movement Conservatives are on the verge of coming true. Trump is already saying he will make "socialism" the centerpiece of his reelection campaign. But our American system is not socialism; it is the regulated capitalism that has stabilized our economy for almost a century.

    (That last paragraph explains why I always been leery of having Bernie as the nominee. )

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    Thanks Arizona. We had a similar discussion in 2011 in a thread entitled: When did Republicans lose their way?

    It linked to another thread, We Are All Socialists Now which related to the February 9, 2009 Newsweek article by that name.

    Trump was not a factor then, and we mostly debated the finer points of capitalism, socialism, libertarianism, and the Ayn Rand philosophy. Those lively discussions largely remained on topic, but finished with Carlitos having the last word in both threads before interest waned.

    I also read the book, The Death of Conservatism by Sam Tenenhaus in 2009. I'll have to go back and revisit some our discussions in the threads back then to see how they relate to Trumpism and the Movement Conservatism as it is applied today. It is an interesting subject but it takes some hard thinking.

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    Thanks Arizona and thanks Schmidt!

    Schmidt, I went to your 2011 link. I’ve spent the last 3 hours going over that thread and it is remarkable. I think all 22 posts should be collected and deemed required reading.

    The danger in our current situation is certain people will realize monumental gains from a collapse. The reality is most people are expecting monumental gains. Somebody here I believe described people in general as believing they are all millionaires with a cash flow problem counting on the big day coming.
    My favorite saying is:”Intuitively obvious to the most casual observation.” The current situation seems to exhibit like that except so very few see it. The right seems to win the propaganda war probably borne by their selfish paranoid defensiveness. They can turn any notion of fairness or opportunity into a vile attack. If the effort and money spent to falsify the stock market were spent on creating a product and production “Happy days would be here again”. And those at the top worried about losing anything would actually gain more.

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    Chet -- I agree with you. At one time I believed that the "deep state" would maybe somehow protect us from the transgressions of the Trump administration, but he has slowly put his cronies into key positions everywhere including the courts. He is not for the FBI director to be gone soon. Arizona has already highlighted cuts to the NSC staff that might oversee Trump, and Barr has issued an order that no federal prosecutor can investigate Trump without Barr's approval.

    However, getting back to the economy, it is obvious what is happening on two fronts. The Fed is doing everything it can to prop up the markets by its recent "repo operation liquidity injections (billions a day before the market opens) and Q4 Quantitative Easing" as mentioned above plus keeping interest rates low; but also Congress's continued high deficit fiscal spending at a time of record high employment and record high stock market indices. I cannot help but feel that both fiscal and monetary policies are being manipulated to give a false sense of optimism leading into the election. If a crash occurs, it will be held up until after election day -- the rich will first grab their stock market winnings, and then buy back in after the crash. Then Republicans will blame Social Security and Medicare programs as the chief culprits along with welfare programs.

    Trump's proposed $4.8 trillion budget continues to build the military while also beefing up his new "Space Force" while cutting foreign aid, environmental protection programs, and slashing welfare programs.

    Trump's proposed budget cuts include "$135 billion in drug pricing reform, $292 billion from adding a work requirement to welfare programs, $170 billion from changing student loan laws, $70 billion from reforming disability programs, and $266 billion from “site neutrality” rules that would see the government pay the same amount for medical services whether they were performed in a hospital or at a doctor’s office."

    The border wall is still a top priority, and any other things likely to get votes from his base. It seems so transparent to us, but not the average guy on the street.

    Meanwhile the potential economic effects of the coronavirus are downplayed. Trump's proposed funding for the Center for Disease Control and Prevention is cut 10 percent. What me worry?

    My opinion.

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    In 1992, Ross Perot gave voice to the phrase, "giant sucking sound" which is what he predicted would be the net result of NAFTA. Congressman Steve LaTourette also said the same thing about the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act in 2009.

    Both of them were wrong.

    The cuts Trump is proposing are also a "giant sucking sound", which would take money away from good programs and diverting funds to foolish ones, like his silly wall.

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    Going back to the larger economy, though, is the fact that 9 out of the last 10 recessions have started under Republican presidents - and the next one is predicted for January of 2021.

    Here's the list of the past recessions (courtesy of Daily Kos):

    1953 Republican
    1958 Republican
    1960 Republican
    1969 Republican
    1973 Republican
    1980 Democratic
    1981 Republican
    1990 Republican
    2001 Republican
    2007 Republican

    Let's also not forget that Reagan nearly tripled the national debt (from $909 billion to $2.6 billion) , and George W. increased it by more than 50%.($5.6 billion to $9.65 billion) It's also true that Trump has increased the national debt by n $3 trillion since his inauguration.

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    Do you remember "voodoo Economics" from the Reagan era?

    Trump just brought it back.

    According to this morning's Washington Post, Trump's budget calls for eliminating the deficit in 15 years, while guarding the military, Social Security an Medicare. The other day, though, it was reported that he DOES plan cuts in Medicare and Social Security. You might also remember that he said that he was going to eliminate the national debt in 8 years.

    Since Trump is proposing dramatic cuts in a number of agencies, Congress is not going to approve his budget. Further, eliminating the deficit by 2035 is an unrealistic goal, since it assumes a sustained growth in the economy of 3% for the next 5 years, which is unlikely to happen.

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    that guy in AZ Wrote:

    Going back to the larger economy, though, is the fact that 9 out of the last 10 recessions have started under Republican presidents - and the next one is predicted for January of 2021.

    Here's the list of the past recessions (courtesy of Daily Kos):

    1953 Republican
    1958 Republican
    1960 Republican
    1969 Republican
    1973 Republican
    1980 Democratic
    1981 Republican
    1990 Republican
    2001 Republican
    2007 Republican

    Let's also not forget that Reagan nearly tripled the national debt (from $909 billion to $2.6 billion) , and George W. increased it by more than 50%.($5.6 billion to $9.65 billion) It's also true that Trump has increased the national debt by n $3 trillion since his inauguration.

    ......The next one predicted for January 2021........ Why not sooner during the election; then at least he may not win. In January he likely will sit with his fat ass in the W.H. again, if the the naive voters give him that "win". By the way excellent threads by all of you.
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    President Obama just posted this a few days ago:

    "Eleven years ago today, near the bottom of the worst recession in generations, I signed the Recovery Act, paving the way for more than a decade of economic growth and the longest streak of job creation in American history."

    Naturally, Trump went into an immediate temper tantrum:

    "Did you hear the latest con job? President Obama is now trying to take credit for the Economic Boom taking place under the Trump Administration. He had the WEAKEST recovery since the Great Depression, despite Zero Fed Rate & MASSIVE quantitative easing. NOW, best jobs numbers.... ever. Had to rebuild our military, which was totally depleted. Fed Rate UP, taxes and regulations WAY DOWN. If Dems won in 2016, the USA would be in big economic (Depression?) & military trouble right now. THE BEST IS YET TO COME. KEEP AMERICA GREAT!

    Officially known as the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, the law was signed on February 17, 2009.

    The approximate cost of the economic stimulus package was estimated to be $787 billion at the time of passage, later revised to $831 billion between 2009 and 2019. The ARRA's rationale was based on the Keynesian economic theory that, during recessions, the government should offset the decrease in private spending with an increase in public spending in order to save jobs and stop further economic deterioration.

    Economists overwhelmingly have said that it reduced unemployment.

    The politics around the stimulus was very contentious. On the right, it spurred the Tea Party movement and may have contributed to Republicans winning the House in the 2010 midterms. Not a single Republican member of the House voted for the stimulus.

    There is disagreement among economists of the effectiveness of the program, but the final report of the Congressional Budget Office (released in 2015) came to these conclusions:

    In February 2015, the CBO released its final analysis of the results of the law, which found that during six years:

    • Real GDP was boosted by an average ranging from a low of 1.7% to a high of 9.2%
    • The unemployment rate was reduced by an average ranging from a low of 1.1 percentage points to a high of 4.8 percentage points
    • Full-time equivalent employment-years was boosted by an average ranging from 2.1 million to 11.6 million
    • Total outlays were $663 billion, of which $97 billion were refundable tax credits

    King Donald I can stew all he wants, but Obama is exactly correct, and he should continue to remind the public of that fact.

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    Trump needs a slush fund for all of his pet projects, $10 Trillion ought to cover most anything he wants to do, and congress would give it to him if they thought they could be reelected for another term.
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    Bretbart, March 12, 2020: Fed Pumps Another $1.5 Trillion into Repo Market

    "The Federal Reserve promised to unleash a torrent of liquidity Thursday to fight what it described as “highly unusual disruptions in Treasury financing markets associated with the coronavirus outbreak.”

    "The Federal Reserve Bank of New York said in a statement that this week it would offer an additional $1 trillion of repos to banks, loans of cash collateralized by U.S. government securities. The first $500 billion of three-month repos was offered today at 1:30 p.m. A second round of $500 billion three month repos and a fresh $500 billion of one-month repos will be offered Friday. These three-month and one-month repos operations will continue on a weekly basis for the remainder of the month, at least.

    "This is in addition to the $175 billion in daily overnight repo operations and at least $45 billion in two-week term repo operations the Fed currently offers twice per week. In addition, The Fed said announcement saw the Fed widen the scale for its “reserve management” program purchasing $60 billion worth of money Treasury bonds to include longer-term Treasuries and other securities issued by the Treasury."


    For those confused, this may help...

    What is the repo market, and why does it matter?

    Isn't it wonderful how the Fed can prop up the stock market for Trump by injecting into what few people understand as the "repo market". Amazing! Trump nevertheless keeps criticizing the Fed for not lowering the interest rates to zero. When it comes to elections, the old adage still applies:

    "It's the economy stupid!"

    Trump knows that.

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    Yes as always, you and Arizona see the picture correctly. However the "system is doomed because it repeats the same mistakes, unless we get some leader who sees it as you both do. I think this is not going to happen. No one is going to change our present worthless laws related to governing and the responsibility of Presidents and their "limits" of power. So we just muddle on to the next disaster, which is certainly to come, because "incompetence" creates those.

    Voting for "incompetent "leaders" without stringent screening is the "noose" around this county's neck.

    I'm afraid that the two "oldies" who run for President, don't have what it takes to cleanup the Trump created mess.

    You two should run instead and have Katy Porter run as V.P.