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Nancy Pelosi has invited Trump to deliver the State of the Union speech before a joint session of Congress on Tuesday February 4th, most likely at 9:00 am EST. The date falls one day after the Iowa Caucus and two days after the Super Bowl.
What are the possible scenarios for Trump's speech if the Senate is still awaiting to receive the formal impeachment submission from the House? What if the Senate is in the middle of hearing testimony from key witnesses (assuming Pelosi and Schumer get their way). What will Trump have to say if all the compelling headline grabbing testimony from Bolton and Mulvaney occurs in the week proceeding? McConnell probably won't let that happen.
On the other hand, suppose the Senate quickly completes its hearing in January and fails to convict him on the charges. Then we can expect Trump to use the State of the Union speech to claim "total exoneration" and condemn the Democrats for a sham trial. He will, as always, be speaking directly to his base. I don't think that Nancy Pelosi would want that to happen in her House chamber especially as she sits directly behind him -- so she will continue to resist submitting the impeachment submission to the Senate until McConnell capitulates.
As the time table squeezes, I believe the Senate trial of Trump will now have to wait until after the State of the Union speech. In the meantime, more and more information from the White House leakers will be published in the New York Times and Washington Post. And maybe in the meantime the courts will side with Pelosi on the various outstanding subpoenas.
Time is on Pelosi's side. She can afford to wait McConnell out and try Trump in the court of public opinion.