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How the 2020 election can evolve into disaster.

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    Dutch Wrote: Yes, however I don't have an crystal ball to predict these things; the only thing I'm sure of is that "chaos" will prevail and get larger than ever. Including the "mafia corruption"; the game seems to be; how can (I, Republicans) fill my pockets until things collapse. Even Musk is now in the game to add more Tesla stocks available, who he then himself buys for an big portion so he can make money from the hype and the "loan". I guess Trump is helping him with it.

    Yes, Dutch, corruption capitalism is in full swing. I don’t have a crystal ball either but wouldn’t be surprised if what I said happened or didn’t happen.

    As for Musk? I have never had any use for him.

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    Strange as it may seem, we may be heading back to "smoke filled rooms" to choose political candidates. There is a real possibility. The last person to won the party nomination without winning a single primary was Hubert Humphrey in 1968.

    Although Humphrey got 42.7% of the vote (compared to Nixon's 43.4%) he got 191 electoral votes, compared to Nixon's 301. George Wallace captured the rest - all in 5 Southern states. Since then, both parties have adopted rules that award delegates according to the popular vote in either primaries or caucuses. This in turn meant that one candidate emerged with a majority of the delegates committed prior to the convention, making those events the political equivalent of an infomercial.

    The voters ruled even if the bosses seethed, as was the case when Donald Trump hijacked the Republican Party in 2016.

    Democrats, unlike Republicans, do not give a statewide primary winner all or the lion’s share of that state’s delegates. Instead, Democrats award delegates proportionally to a candidate’s share of the vote, so long as that person gets at least 15 percent. If a winner gets 26 percent of the vote, as Sanders did in New Hampshire, he or she gets about 26 percent of the delegates. This creates a strong incentive to stay in the race even if a candidate finishes third or fourth.

    Believe it or not, even if the race narrows to Sanders and one competitor after St. Patrick’s Day, Sanders could repeatedly defeat that person by 60-40 landslides and still not be assured the nomination.

    This is where the bosses come back in.

    See the source image

    About 16 percent of the delegates are not even selected by voters. These super delegates, which consist mainly of elected Democratic officials but also some longtime unelected party activists, cannot vote on the first ballot but can vote in every ballot thereafter. This is why former vice president Joe Biden or Klobuchar have a real chance to win

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/02/13/hold-your-hats-democratic-race-could-get-very-messy/

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    Presidential Medal of Freedom recipient winner Rush Limbaugh just suggested that “America’s still not ready to elect a gay guy”, which could be a taste of what Pete Buttigieg will face if he is the Democratic presidential nominee.

    After Al Smith was defeated in 1928, people said that America was not ready to elect a Catholic - but JFK won in 1960.

    Nobody thought a divorced man could become president - but Reagan got elected in 1980

    Nobody though a black man could get elected president - until Barack Obama got elected in 2008

    It's common sense that a person with zero political experience could not be elected president - but Trump got elected.

    Prior to 2015, Mayor Pete would have been foolish to run for president. However, a June 2017 Pew Research Center poll found 62% of Americans supported same-sex marriage, 32% opposed, and 6% had no opinion. This marked the first Pew poll where a majority of Baby Boomers supported same-sex marriage, and where a majority of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents did not oppose same-sex marriage.[

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Public_opinion_of_same-sex_marriage_in_the_United_States

    In the United States, numerous gay people have served in Congress. Stewart McKinney was the first in 1971.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_LGBT_members_of_the_United_States_Congress

    There are currently 3 countries that are led by gay people, and 2 other counties that have had gay leaders in the past. Rush Limbaugh may not be ready for a gay president, but it seems that a lot of people in America are.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_openly_LGBT_heads_of_government

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    I guess this is not the issue; he's been only an mayor of an small town in In(san)iana. He has no "world" experience at all, or dealt with all kind of types of people like in N.Y. or Moscow. Let alone what he will run into while in office. Our present leader ( the business man) has no clue either, except how to do "power grabbing". So what will mayor Pete do?

    Certainly the "evangelicals" won't vote for him and that is an huge part of the voters.

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    My ballot to vote in the Democratic primary came in the mail today. Although I'm not planning on voting until after Super Tuesday, I was astonished to find that there are 18 candidates listed on the form, and 7 of them have already dropped out.

    I'm surprised that Tulsi Gabbard has not dropped out yet, and I am especially surprised to see Rocky De La Feuente on the list, since he is actually running as a Republican.

    I've never heard of Michael Ellinger, but he apparently is still running. Henry Hewes used to be a Republican, but is now running as a Democrat.

    I'm guessing that the order of their order on the ballot is by chance, possible by a coin toss, but it was interesting to see Amy Klobuchar in the first spot, and Biden and Warren at the bottom.

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    You have 1 really old white guy who seems as if he's senile and another old white guy who isn't even a Democrat and he uses the term Socialism like it's the word puppy. There's an article on CNN saying that huge numbers aren't comfortable with the term or idea. People in general like the same, standard, customary things. Different equals bad to the narrow minded in this country (in case you haven't watched the news the last 36 months). So we have old and possibly senile, old / maybe not 100% healthy - not a Democrat - Socialism guy who wants to provide everything for free. Next is a Billionaire who has trouble with non whites and stop and frisk - skeletons in the closet with non-disclosure agreements, an actual good candidate who's a veteran from the Midwest - who's gay. Two highly capable women as well.

    We need all Democrats to actually vote in November and Independent voters to vote for our candidate as well. Seems like the name calling and inappropriate jokes will be plentiful leading towards November. How could this possibly go wrong.?

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    Warren is the only candidate running in either party that would make a high quality president. Bernie is just an old fool ranting on and on about how he is a socialist when study after study show the typical uniformed/misinformed American voter has no idea what a socialist, democratic socialist or even communist is or means other than its bad. Warren goes along with this fantasy for some unknown reason but both she and Bernie are actually nothing more than moderate Dems from 50 years ago. Biden has always been a sleazy old fool who has been owned by the Delaware banks and corporations. But Toby is a moderate republican and it even worthy of being a mayor of a small city, kobacher is basically the same as Buttboy only older and more corrupt and Tuli? Just another spoiler with no real values or worth.

    Go Liz

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    No Warren is a just and old "know it all" bitchy school teacher out of the "boonies"; I wonder if the kids who she had in class ever learned anything; she knows nothing of the world, Let's be honest the whole Dem clan has never learned to be "cool" and have manners, Buttigieg has a bit of "normalcy" except he has the "gay" thing against him. Bloomberg would still be the best bet, regardless of the mistakes he made in the past; hopefully he learned from them. Anyway running an "city" is different than running an country. Hopefully the next President re-installs the "norms" as well "checks" and "balances" and abides by the emoluments clauses. etc. and is not "power" hungry. It would be nice to have the Senate back in the hands of the Dem's; if not then the country will stay divided and will be ungovernable.
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    that guy in AZ Wrote:

    My ballot to vote in the Democratic primary came in the mail today. Although I'm not planning on voting until after Super Tuesday, I was astonished to find that there are 18 candidates listed on the form, and 7 of them have already dropped out.

    I'm surprised that Tulsi Gabbard has not dropped out yet, and I am especially surprised to see Rocky De La Feuente on the list, since he is actually running as a Republican.

    I've never heard of Michael Ellinger, but he apparently is still running. Henry Hewes used to be a Republican, but is now running as a Democrat.

    I'm guessing that the order of their order on the ballot is by chance, possible by a coin toss, but it was interesting to see Amy Klobuchar in the first spot, and Biden and Warren at the bottom.

    I'm finally starting to narrow down my choices, but won't make a final decision until after Super Tuesday.

    In the last couple of days, I've read very convincing opinion columns in support of Amy Klobuchar, Mayor Pete, Elizabeth Warren, and Bernie Sanders. I don't see the other 14 (including Joe Biden) making the final cut.

    Of the first four that I mentioned, I think that Amy, Elizabeth, and Pete would be able to hold their own against Trump. Trump's campaign slogan is "socialism sucks", so he would likely chew up Bernie, but here's the crazy part:

    What is Trump refuses to debate ANY of the Democratic candidates? Sure, that's crazy, but he HAS done it before.

    https://www.cnn.com/2016/01/27/politics/donald-trump-iowa-debate-2016-election/index.html

    Here's Trump's opinion of the Democratic field:

    *****************************************************************

    The Lamestream Media, which is the Enemy of the People, is working overtime with made-up stories to try and take down President Trump.

    Losers like Quid Pro Joe, Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas, Pete Boot-edge-edge and Mini Mike have NO chance of winning in 2020, but the FAKE NEWS will do anything to convince you otherwise. The truth is:

    • Creepy Joe never knows what state he’s in.
    • Crazy Bernie has lost his mind.
    • Pocahontas wants out so she can have a “nice cold beer” with her husband.
    • Pete Boot-edge-edge has perhaps the most radical ideas of them all.
    • And Mini Mike is demanding a box so he can see over the podium!

    But, here’s the bad news…The Liberal Media won’t show you any of this!

    They are defrauding and deceiving the public by only reporting LIES about President Trump’s Administration. It’s obvious that the media has teamed up with the 2020 Democrats to try and MANIPULATE THE ELECTION, and we can’t let them get away with it.

    The system has always been RIGGED against us, and that’s why the President requested we reach out to see what REAL AMERICANS think heading into November.

    We’re sending him the FIRST 500 RESPONSES directly to his phone for him to review. Make sure he knows where you stand.

    **************************************************************

    You may have noticed that he left out Amy Klobuchar. Maybe she's be the best pick after all.

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    Ryan Lizza's headline, "Sanders eviscerates the conventional wisdom about why he can't win," may indeed, after Nevada, hold elsewhere … in the primaries. In the general election, it's less than conventional wisdom than either the thundering Word from above or Hell's hounds' monitory barking that Sanders will re-hand the White House keys to Trump, intimately fuck Democrats' chances of retaking the Senate, and have the party's purple-district reps preemptively mailing out their résumés.
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    In the aftermath of the 2020 election, the headlines next year could read, "How Bernie Sanders destroyed the Democratic Party". Sanders continues to get soft criticism, as the other candidates with the possible exception of Bloomberg are hesitant to really go after Bernie in a big way. Elizabeth Warren's "tiny bump" after going into attack mode against Bloomberg didn't seem to attract any Bernie supporters from the Bernie clutch. Bernie has been blustering the same message for five years, and the shear repetition of it has indeed found some new life in 2020, especially amongst the Hispanic community of Nevada singularly victimized by Trump's tweets and ICE raids.

    Bernie is an opportunist in that regard, the same as Trump tapping into the discontent of workers not finding good paying factory jobs. They both play the "blame game" effectively, and they are both going after some of the same voters in the Rust Belt and other states. They both play the anti-establishment "drain the swamp" game, although Bernie has been a part of that establishment in Congress since 1991 and Trump has made the swamp bigger. And they both know how to "play the victim" tapping into the emotions of the electorate.

    It's all in the messaging focusing on one's emotions. Facts and reality are no longer a part of the game. It's who can stoke up the most anger. And who can make the biggest promises. Trump's "Build the Wall and make Mexico Pay for it" is no more outlandish than Bernie's "Medicare for All" and his dismissals of who's going to pay for it.

    Hopefully some sanity can come soon. Steyer, Gabbard and Klobuchar need to drop out of the race now, and Biden right after South Carolina. Warren likewise if she cannot make a dent in South Carolina.

    That leaves Sanders, Buttigieg and Bloomberg to work on their messages with voters after March 3rd.

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    If Trump is still watching FOX (which is likely) their latest poll is not going to make him happy:

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/3/28/1932096/-This-Fox-News-poll-makes-Donald-Trump-so-sad-particularly-the-Elizabeth-Warren-part?detail=emaildkre

    Regardless of which woman Biden picks as this vice president, he has at least an 8 point advantage over Trump.

    Before you take comfort in that fact, though, remember that Hillary still led in the polls almost right up to election day.

    According to Gallup, Hillary's UNFAVORABLE rating between November 2 and November 5 was 52%. Trump, however, was even worse, at 61%.

    • Trump's 61% unfavorable score is worst in presidential polling history
    • Clinton's 52% unfavorable score is second-worst
    • Candidates roughly matched in highly unfavorable images

    There were 127 million votes cast, and Trump got 3,000,000 less than Hillary. However, due to the fact that he got a total of 80,000 votes more in three states, he won the electoral college - and the presidency. Going all the way back to 1956, the president with the highest approval rating at the time of the election was IKE, with 84%. Trump holds the record for the LOWEST approval rating, at 36%, 11 points lower than Hillary.

    https://news.gallup.com/poll/197231/trump-clinton-finish-historically-poor-images.aspx

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    Does it really matter? The "virus" may win in the end. I just wonder what "rabbit" Trump pulls out of his hat? He's super corrupt (his only trade) and still may win because of our stupid "electoral college" . He'll find a way to skew the results in his direction. But yeah this country is too stupid to just let "votes" count and let the hoards of "money" decide.

    Sorry people you get what you deserve if you stick to worn out shoes.

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    And God willing, he will live long enough to be a spoiler again in '24. Always the victim. American voters want a strong leader not a bitter old one whose always crying out, it just isn't fair ! The (his) following is just as bitter and loyal to the end. Amazing that they would surely prefer Trump again over anyone that got in Sanders way thus denied him. That's the world that we live in. If elected how would he feel about Republicans disagreement and opposition to 100% of what he suggests ? He should realize it's not about him. It's about the country and it's citizens.
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    "The 2020 presidential battle will be fought largely over suburban white women who supported Trump in 2016 but have turned away from him. Both parties will be trying to show they care about women’s issues: Biden has already pledged to pick a woman as a running mate. Although we have no clear signals yet who that will be, we can narrow the field pretty easily because a vice presidential candidate has to bring something to the table to cover a key weakness in the presidential candidate, but has to be a credible option to step into the presidential office if necessary. It also seems quite possible that Trump will jettison Vice President Mike Pence for a different running mate. There is speculation that will be former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley, but there are other options. In both cases, the candidates will be signaling what they see as the future of their political party."

    (source HCR)

    If you think it's improbably that Trump would dump Pence, consider the fact that FDR had three different vice presidents.

    John Nance Garner served from March 4 of 1933 until January 20,1941.

    Henry Wallace served from January 20,1941 until January 20, 1945.

    Harry Truman served from January 20, 1945 until April 12, 1945 - when he became president.