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How the 2020 election can evolve into disaster.

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    I expect that Trump will indeed skip the general election debates in September/October. He already has his base energized, and the debate could be a negative factor with many of the undecided independents. Trump might be able to hold his own with Biden who at times has trouble with memory recall, but Elizabeth Warren or Pete Buttigieg will be far better debaters. And the audience will be a more neutral audience instead of a bunch of boisterous hand selected Trump rally attendees.

    All Trump knows is bullying and his act will be getting old, especially in front of largely young university audiences. From USA Today:

    The first presidential debate will be Sept. 29, 2020, at the University of Notre Dame in Notre Dame, Ind.

    The only scheduled vice presidential debate will be hosted by the University of Utah in Salt Lake City on Oct. 7, 2020.

    A second presidential debate is set for Oct. 15, 2020, at the University of Michigan in Ann Arbor.

    The third and final presidential debate will be hosted by Belmont University in Nashville, Tenn., on Oct. 22, 2020, which is less than two weeks before Election Day.

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    Forget it; I don't call that debates where Trump is involved; it will be only an"scream/bully/intimidation" fest. You can't debate with "dictators" you should know that; ask Putin.
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    Yes, and his performance would be so embarrassing that many opened minded independents and moderates will cringe and not vote for him. His phony act that he pulled on Hillary in the 2016 debates only appeals to his avid ignorant base...the deplorables. But the rest of the country (except perhaps the diehard Bernie supporters of 2016) will want to vote for anybody but Trump.
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    Schmidt Wrote: Yes, and his performance would be so embarrassing that many opened minded independents and moderates will cringe and not vote for him. His phony act that he pulled on Hillary in the 2016 debates only appeals to his avid ignorant base...the deplorables. But the rest of the country (except perhaps the diehard Bernie supporters of 2016) will want to vote for anybody but Trump.
    The die-hard Bernie supporters hopefully realize that he had an heart attack and is not that suited for the job anymore. Also since he's "farther" left than others; he may get the Boris effect as happened in Britain, thus negative for the Dem's. I only hope Steyer and Bloomberg move to the foreground and tackle Trump.
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    Yes it will be an disaster, especially if Trump is not "impeached". The elections are now subject to "manipulation" by the GOP and their "PAC's" as is already happening in Wisconsin. Voter purges everywhere.

    Wake up America; the only thing you should do and act upon is to get Trump out. Thus vote for the guys with lots of "money" like Bloomberg (because they can battle Trump on his own bribery tactics); forget all the DNC hoopla of "policies" and "platforms" and Biden, Bernie and Warren that only creates an "Boris" effect. Don't forget Trump and his butt crawlers is "mafia" and will use all the dirty tricks they can find to win.

    So elect someone who can destroy this "mafia" and can clean up the mess after Trump is removed with common sense.

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    One of Trump's lowest Gallup approval rating occurred on election day 2016. He was elected with a 36 percent approval rating nation wide. In 2017 he had several polls around the 35 to 36 percent range, but in most of 2018 and 2019 he has consistently polled above 40 percent. His best ever was in April 2019 at 46 percent, but now (November 2019 poll) he stands at 43 percent with a corresponding disapproval of 54 percent. It will be interesting to see the next two Gallup polls, but all indications are that his base of supporters remain resolute in their support.

    A few years ago I felt that the loyal base of voters for each party was around 40 percent (including so called independents) and that most candidates were really vying for the vote of the middle more moderate 20 percent. I think that middle more moderate 20 percent has shrunk to something like maybe 10 percent.

    The electoral college effect of swing states is a given. I think the right moderate Democrat could actually win in these swing states, except that many of the far left voters (the Bernie folks) will never vote for a moderate Democrat...often called the "establishment candidates" by the Bernie supporters and now perhaps some the "OK Boomers" as well. With the Bernie effect and the entrance of an appealing 3rd party candidate in the Green Party (another Jill Stein) to easily syphon off some more Democrats, then I can foresee a repeat of 2016. This would be doubly assured if the Russians were given free rein to meddle in our elections in swing states. Bill Barr and Moscow Mitch won't do anything to stop them for sure.

    When I say the Russians will have a free rein, I mean they will look to accentuate the already polarized divisions. Bernie Sanders and the Green Party candidates could get some much needed support from "invisible hands"...the Super Pacs plus Facebook trolls.

    And then there is those vulnerable voting machines that can be easily hacked, not to mention the voter data bases themselves. Oh and voter purges plus tighter voter ID requirements, fewer voting stations, reduced early voting, etc. can minimize voter turnout. Low voter turnouts always hurt Democrats more.

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    An encouraging sign for the 2020 election is the formation of The Lincoln Project by George Conway III, Steve Schmidt, John Weaver, and Rick Wilson.

    "Over these next 11 months, our efforts will be dedicated to defeating President Trump and Trumpism at the ballot box and to elect those patriots who will hold the line. We do not undertake this task lightly, nor from ideological preference. We have been, and remain, broadly conservative (or classically liberal) in our politics and outlooks. Our many policy differences with national Democrats remain, but our shared fidelity to the Constitution dictates a common effort."

    The letter they published this morning is long, but worth reading:

    https://www.nytimes.com/2019/12/17/opinion/lincoln-project.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

    Wilson wrote "Everything that Trump Touches Dies", which I read earlier this year . He JUST released his latest,"Running Against the Devil: A Plot to Save America from Trump--and Democrats from Themselves".

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    One of Trump’s top reelection advisers was just caught on tape telling top Republicans in Wisconsin that while the party has “traditionally” relied on voter suppression to win swing states, a legal change will let the GOP go on “offense.” He was referring to the 2018 law that reversed a decision in place since 1982 that had kept Republicans from policing the polls. They had been credibly accused of voter intimidation after they had hired off-duty police officers in New Jersey, some of whom were carrying guns, to wear armbands saying “National Ballot Security Task Force.” In 2018, though, that ban was lifted, and the RNC can once again do its own policing of polling places.

    See the source image

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ballot_Security_Task_Force

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    And you say: This is still an "normal" country? Forget it!

    I guess the 2020 elections will be filled with more "fraud" than ever; especially in the known "fraud" States as FL, GA, NC, KY, OH, etc. Guess where are the voting stations going to be and how the "count" is done? Let alone the "electoral college" B.S. They will never learn in this country as long as "lots" of money is involved in elections.

    Trump has no problem at all, the "PAC's will help him, because he gave the rich an "bonus" tax cut.

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    Up until this morning, I was never more than a lukewarm Bernie fan.

    Then I watched CNN on the screen when I was on the treadmill at the club, and saw that Bernie had raised $34.5 million in the 4th quarter, within shouting distance of Trump's $46 million. What's significant is that virtually all of Bernie's money came from small donors, which is far from the case with Trump.

    If that $46 million is accurate, it is a huge drop from Trump's 3rd quarter haul of $125 million.

    As of August, Bernie had significantly more individual donors that anyone else. Although the updated total won't be available for a few days yet, it's likely much higher now, since he raised $18 million just in the month of December.

    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/08/02/us/politics/2020-democratic-fundraising.html

    Bernie is also the most popular person in the senate, with a 64% approval rating. Mitch McConnell is one of the least popular.

    https://morningconsult.com/2019/01/10/americas-most-and-least-popular-senators-q4-2018/

    The next debate will be on January 14, in Iowa. As of today, only 5 people qualify. The 2020 Iowa Democratic caucuses will take place on Monday, February 3, 2020.

    https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/five-democrats-have-qualified-for-the-january-debate-who-else-might-make-it/

    In February, there will be THREE debates, just before primary voting in New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. Each state will host a primary debate just days before voting.

    https://www.uspresidentialelectionnews.com/2019/12/dnc-announces-january-and-february-democratic-debate-schedule/

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    Sorry none of these debates work. My guess is that only Bloomberg is qualified; the rest has never been farther than "kindergarten"; they have no clue about the world they live in. If this circus continues as it is now; then Trump will certainly get an second term. This whole election process is like an bunch of "amateurs" tinkering with "health care" on an "island".

    I've not heard a thing about "international politics" or "trade" in any of these debates, or about doing something about "election laws" and the "electoral college", let alone "what should be the "tasks" of Presidents.

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    The Atlantic: Why Is the Young Left Out to Get Buttigieg? Here Are Four Theories.

    Young progressives don’t like Pete Buttigieg. They refer to him as "the most obnoxious type of Millennial" or "a boomer wrapped up in Millenial clothing" and more. Buttigieg to them "is a young person’s idea of an old person—and, evidently, some sort of bag".

    "In a recent Quinnipiac poll, Buttigieg placed second in the Democratic field among voters over 50. But he earned just 2 percent support among voters under 35. His popularity among those aged 35–49 is about as high as his overall numbers. Buttigieg hate is tightly concentrated among the young."

    As per the Atlantic article, young people hate him because he is not a socialist; they hate him because they think he's a liar; they hate him because they think he is a traitor to their generation; and they hate him because of their own anxieties about success.

    My observation is that these hard core Bernie supporters hate anything connected with the establishment. They hate any moderate Democrat, but also surprisingly hate Elizabeth Warren.

    Newsweek: Elizabeth Warren Has 2020 Momentum. But These Bernie Sanders Supporters Say They'll Never Vote for Her—Even Against Trump

    Truth be told, many of these Bernie supporters are the same ones who sat out the 2016 election or voted for Trump or Jill Stein rather than Hillary. They are as wedded to Bernie much as Trump's hard right supporters are wedded to him. Their respective tribes in a sense treat their "chosen ones" like a messiah. The Bernie or Busters are still there and will cause havoc at the Democratic Party convention. And yes there is a good chance it will be a brokered convention, ultimately leaving the Bernie folks feeling extremely bitter again. The "Our Revolution", although a minority, will not be silenced. Many will vote for Trump out of spite for the Democratic Party establishment.

    Republicans do not have a monopoly on hate. These Democrats also can hate. Hate is a strong emotion that trumps critical thinking.

    If the Democratic Party nomination process and general election becomes a disaster, it will be the "Bernie Socialist Party" leading his cult of followers in "Our Revolution".

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    Schmidt:

    I found this section of the poll to be VERY interesting:

    If the general election for president were being held today, 51 percent of registered voters say they would vote for Joe Biden, while 42 percent say they would vote for President Trump. When Trump is matched against other Democratic contenders the race remains in single digits:

    • Bernie Sanders gets 51 percent, while Trump has 43 percent;
    • Elizabeth Warren receives 50 percent and Trump gets 43 percent;
    • Michael Bloomberg gets 48 percent to Trump's 42 percent;
    • Pete Buttigieg has 48 percent, while Trump receives 43 percent;
    • Amy Klobuchar receives 47 percent, while Trump has 43 percent.

    Although pairing Bernie with Buttigieg would unite the young people who like Bernie (age 78) with the older folks who like Buttigieg (age 39) I don't think the strategy would work very well.

    Although the poll above looks promising for the Democrats, a CNN poll from June, when 54% of those polled thought that Trump would win re-election.

    https://www.cnn.com/2019/06/05/politics/cnn-poll-trump-prediction-economy-issues/index.html

    Complicating the Democratic race is the fact that Bernie, Elizabeth, and Amy will be taking time off for campaigning due to the fact that they will be jurors in the upcoming Senate trial.

    Yikes!

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    Daily Kos just posted some encouraging news this morning.

    Using modern technology, the Navajo and Apache tribes are systematically canvassing their reservations in order to "get out the vote". If they are successful, they will elect Democrat Mark Kelly to the senate AND prevent Trump from getting Arizona's 11 electoral votes, which will deny him victory in the electoral college.

    https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2020/1/23/1913555/-Update-Navajos-Apaches-Working-to-Deny-Trump-Arizona-s-11-Electoral-Votes?detail=emaildkre

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    According to the latest FOX poll, EVERY Democratic candidate still running would defeat the man pictured below:

    15 Photos Donald Trump Tried to Keep from the Public

    https://politicaltribune.org/new-poll-from-fox-news-shows-every-democratic-candidate-beating-trump/?fbclid=IwAR3cFuejcjFmKM4-k4RrgbaaFcRaKbO7yvgNqIaryFuc3OoWdgeFRhw4lsY