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Trump's Recession .

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  • Chet Ruminski
    2018-12-18 10:15:16 PM
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    For the last hundred years after every major tax cut there has been a recession. No secret. So why do the Republicans push for tax cuts knowing a recession will follow???
  • Dutch
    2018-12-19 08:55:21 AM
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    Chet Ruminski Wrote: For the last hundred years after every major tax cut there has been a recession. No secret. So why do the Republicans push for tax cuts knowing a recession will follow???
    Chet, I give you an simple answer ; "greed" drives it. As long as you please the "money hungry" 1%, then once you get them on board, they will crawl up your butt and help you to get rich too. Republicans seldom look at consequences; they want to score first and then don't think any further and "see" only the dangling dollar sign in front of their noses.
  • Schmidt
    2018-12-20 01:04:51 AM
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    Chet Ruminski Wrote: For the last hundred years after every major tax cut there has been a recession. No secret. So why do the Republicans push for tax cuts knowing a recession will follow???

    Chet -- Here we go again. You've made this outlandish statement in the past, and I believe Carlitos challenged you on it. It simply is not true. There are a variety of factors that come together to cause a recession, and from what I have read, most economists do not subscribe to a single factor.

    In any case, intuitively, a tax cut across the board spurns more consumer spending which gives a boost to the economy. Tax increases, on the other hand, take money out of the private sector and inhibit growth.

    Every recession is unique, and most economists do not subscribe to a single theory of the causes and prevention of recessions. Central banks raising interest rates are one often cited, but economists caution that there are usually other factors. The Great Recession was caused by a multitude of factors...a dozen or more.

    I would ask you to provide some reliable references to support your statement. In my research to fact check your statement, I could not find any. On the other hand, I can find articles that debunk it, at least in part. Here's one from Politico:

    Tyler Fisher, Politico, Sep 27, 2017: How past income tax rate cuts on the wealthy affected the economy

    Fisher looked at it from the standpoint of taxing (or cutting taxes) on the rich, but many of those top rate tax reforms cited in the article included middle class tax cuts as well.

    "POLITICO looked at each time the country changed the top income tax rate and the following five years of GDP per capita growth rate. The results are similar to the CRS findings: changing the top income tax rate does not have a predictable effect on economic growth."

    I will await your references to support your contention.

  • Chet Ruminski
    2018-12-20 06:51:58 AM
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    How past income tax rate cuts on the wealthy affected the economy - Politico

    Politico › interactives › gop-tax-rate-cut-...

    Sep 27, 2017 · During his second term, Reagan presided over another major tax rate cut as part of a more general tax reform act. The package cut the top tax rate to its lowest point in the postwar era at 28%. During the subsequent five years, the economy experienced a small recession during George H. W. Bush's presidency.

  • Chet Ruminski
    2018-12-20 06:57:02 AM
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    More to follow. Super busy helping a marine construcion company with last minute equipment problems and a new dredging contract.
  • Chet Ruminski
    2018-12-20 07:03:41 AM
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    Tax money is money spending. Cutting taxes is cutting spending. Lower incomes will spend every extra penny the get. Upper incomes do not increase spending of every extra penny they get. Therefore less money is spent after a tax cut. Cutting spending of tax money is recessionary.

    One narrative describing the causes of the crisis begins with the significant increase in savings available for investment during the 2000–2007 period when the global pool of fixed-income securities increased from approximately $36 trillion in 2000 to $80 trillion by 2007. This "Giant Pool of Money" increased as savings from high-growth developing nations entered global capital markets. Investors searching for higher yields than those offered by U.S. Treasury bonds sought alternatives globally.[1]

  • Chet Ruminski
    2018-12-20 07:17:15 AM
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    Sadly there will be a Trump recession.
  • Schmidt
    2018-12-20 08:35:22 AM
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    Yes most all economists are predicting a recession in late 2019 or 2020. But the Trump tax cuts are not being cited as the primary reason. We also have increases in the central bank's interest rate and global factors:

    Financial News: The 10 steps to a 2020 recession and financial crisis

    The Trump tax cut is only one of ten and is listed because the stimulus effect will have run out.

    However, your premise was that "for the last hundred years after every major tax cut there has been a recession." You have not provided evidence to support that contention. Maybe you could start with Wikipedia:

    Wikipedia: List of recessions in the United States

    It lists all the recessions back to 1785 and their causes. I scanned through the list for the last hundred years and saw lots of references to money tightening and the Fed raising interest rates as the primary cause of recessions, but nothing about tax cuts. Maybe I missed something here.

  • Dutch
    2018-12-20 09:16:55 AM
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    Schmidt Wrote:

    Yes most all economists are predicting a recession in late 2019 or 2020. But the Trump tax cuts are not being cited as the primary reason. We also have increases in the central bank's interest rate and global factors:

    Financial News: The 10 steps to a 2020 recession and financial crisis

    The Trump tax cut is only one of ten and is listed because the stimulus effect will have run out.

    However, your premise was that "for the last hundred years after every major tax cut there has been a recession." You have not provided evidence to support that contention. Maybe you could start with Wikipedia:

    Wikipedia: List of recessions in the United States

    It lists all the recessions back to 1785 and their causes. I scanned through the list for the last hundred years and saw lots of references to money tightening and the Fed raising interest rates as the primary cause of recessions, but nothing about tax cuts. Maybe I missed something here.

    Don't forget that we are living in another period; computers have changed the financial trading ; just look at the stock market which is totally driven by very fast trading computers. An crash does not take much to happen nowadays because of the complexity and speed of transactions. Sorry in the horse and buggy time causes were analysed on paper and took forever to find the cause; nowadays crashes can happen in a split second and can be traced, but still often can't be corrected in time to prevent it.
  • Chet Ruminski
    2018-12-20 12:31:03 PM
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    google.com/amp/s/amp.usatoday.com/amp/9...

    "Every Republican president since Teddy Roosevelt in the early 1900's endured a recession in their first term, according to an analysis from Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at stock research firm CFRA. Four Republican presidents suffered through two recessions while in office and Republican President Dwight Eisenhower presided over three. Meanwhile, Democrats have largely skated past the recession quicksand. Four in five Democratic presidents saw no recessions during their terms since 1945, Stovall says."

  • Chet Ruminski
    2018-12-20 12:41:35 PM
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    Dutch Wrote:
    Schmidt Wrote:

    Yes most all economists are predicting a recession in late 2019 or 2020. But the Trump tax cuts are not being cited as the primary reason. We also have increases in the central bank's interest rate and global factors:

    Financial News: The 10 steps to a 2020 recession and financial crisis

    The Trump tax cut is only one of ten and is listed because the stimulus effect will have run out.

    However, your premise was that "for the last hundred years after every major tax cut there has been a recession." You have not provided evidence to support that contention. Maybe you could start with Wikipedia:

    Wikipedia: List of recessions in the United States

    It lists all the recessions back to 1785 and their causes. I scanned through the list for the last hundred years and saw lots of references to money tightening and the Fed raising interest rates as the primary cause of recessions, but nothing about tax cuts. Maybe I missed something here.

    Don't forget that we are living in another period; computers have changed the financial trading ; just look at the stock market which is totally driven by very fast trading computers. An crash does not take much to happen nowadays because of the complexity and speed of transactions. Sorry in the horse and buggy time causes were analysed on paper and took forever to find the cause; nowadays crashes can happen in a split second and can be traced, but still often can't be corrected in time to prevent it.
    Dutch, The reason it is so touchy with the economy is the aversion for making products for sale worldwide. Then on top of that cheap prices at all costs to provide a higher margin makes cheap products cost more. I used to buy Red Wing or HH boots. Now everything is made in China. I bought a pair of good looking work shoes for $19.00 at Walmart. Within three weeks the sole separated. So profits from mass marketing goes into the pocket instead of product improvement.
  • Dockadams
    2018-12-20 01:44:26 PM
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    why do the Republicans push for tax cuts

    It's their only platform. They can't run on healthcare because they want to get rid of it, repeal and replace.

    They can't run on anti-gun legislation because they're owned by the NRA.

    They can't run on being inclusive because they want to round up and deport immigrants, whether here legally or not.

    They can't run on wage increases, they say that would hurt the corporations receiving the tax cuts.

    They use the tax cuts platform because they believe most voters will fall for it, after all, when they say tax cuts, Americans bite it hook, line and sinker.

    They can't run on enhancing safety nets or social programs because they'll use the money being spent on that for tax cuts.

    There's more reasons but it would take at least a year to compile them all and post them here.

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