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Predictions for 2018

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    I am adding a new 2018 prediction, and I hope I am wrong. My prediction is not intended to be cynical.

    Prediction: Whatever progress congress may make on this issue protecting kids in schools from mass shootings, trump will cause it to fail before any bill reaches his desk.

    I base this prediction strictly on my personal perception that anything trump touches will ultimately die\fail unless he directly benefits from it. It is fundamental, there is no benefit for trump in solving mass shootings, and he will cause it to fail. I am not suggesting he will intentionally cause it fail, I am saying that is who he is; he can't help himself. It is what he does. He destroys things and cause good things to fail. He is cancer in human form.

    Tie the solution to something that will make him richer, then there is some chance, otherwise there is no chance.

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    There doesn't seem to be a rationale connection with Trump's motives. I stand firmly behind my initial assessment that Trump never wanted to be president. He wanted to only improve his brand. He made no positive campaign effort . He lied about his ideas and appealed to a group he never tried to help or would help. In spite of all his negativity he was elected through a phenomenon that placed a totally undeserving , unqualified , unprepared totally unstable selfish individual as president. Anything is possible .
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    Chet Ruminski Wrote: There doesn't seem to be a rationale connection with Trump's motives.

    In all seriousness, trump's predictably and motives are about the same the 2-3yr old. Kids that age are always living in moment; there is no tomorrow for them. They want, what they want, RIGHT NOW, and use their manipulation skills to get what they want. Often a high volume tantrum (ie tweet storm). In their little world, "It's all about ME".

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    Exactly a year ago I wrote a blog article stating that there was a "method to Trump's madness". I haven't seen anything to change my mind. Trump is obsessed with "winning". What I wrote a year ago (Feb 20, 2017):

    "Trump knows how to tap into America's love of "winners", knows how to create fear to his advantage and has no shame lying about anything knowing many will believe it. All the dirty tactics in politics we hate to admit work for Trump. Democrats need to understand how formidable Trump can be and start fighting back without hesitation. We need to do more than just march and hold protest rallies. We need to take back control of the messaging by more effectively exposing his lies and subterfuge. We need to be more outspoken and persuasive -- show passion. We need to grab the headlines from Trump. Build a grass roots organization that can resonate with all Americans. Take back the working class to believe in Democratic values, not in Republican trickle-down economics. And most of all we need to get out the vote in 2018 and 2020."

    The new expression being bandied about in the media is "perception management". I prefer old fashioned "propaganda". Whatever you want to call it, his base of supporters is solid...evangelicals, gun nuts, plutocrats, unemployed workers, and as a group, authoritarian followers who crave a dictator to lead them in this fearful world. But his base is only 35 percent or so.

    While Democrats are building grass roots organizations, they resonate only with specific demographics (e.g. Our Revolution) but not necessarily all Americans. More importantly, we have not yet taken back working class Americans who steadfastly have supported Trump because their tribal instincts are strong -- many still believe he will deliver on his promises. Donald Trump still controls the messaging and media.

    Nevertheless, I remain cautiously optimistic and that's because women and now young people are energized like never before to vote.

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    Schmidt Wrote:

    Exactly a year ago I wrote a blog article stating that there was a "method to Trump's madness". I haven't seen anything to change my mind. Trump is obsessed with "winning". What I wrote a year ago (Feb 20, 2017):

    "Trump knows how to tap into America's love of "winners", knows how to create fear to his advantage and has no shame lying about anything knowing many will believe it. All the dirty tactics in politics we hate to admit work for Trump. Democrats need to understand how formidable Trump can be and start fighting back without hesitation. We need to do more than just march and hold protest rallies. We need to take back control of the messaging by more effectively exposing his lies and subterfuge. We need to be more outspoken and persuasive -- show passion. We need to grab the headlines from Trump. Build a grass roots organization that can resonate with all Americans. Take back the working class to believe in Democratic values, not in Republican trickle-down economics. And most of all we need to get out the vote in 2018 and 2020."

    The new expression being bandied about in the media is "perception management". I prefer old fashioned "propaganda". Whatever you want to call it, his base of supporters is solid...evangelicals, gun nuts, plutocrats, unemployed workers, and as a group, authoritarian followers who crave a dictator to lead them in this fearful world. But his base is only 35 percent or so.

    While Democrats are building grass roots organizations, they resonate only with specific demographics (e.g. Our Revolution) but not necessarily all Americans. More importantly, we have not yet taken back working class Americans who steadfastly have supported Trump because their tribal instincts are strong -- many still believe he will deliver on his promises. Donald Trump still controls the messaging and media.

    Nevertheless, I remain cautiously optimistic and that's because women and now young people are energized like never before to vote.

    All after the fact commentary. Perception management was probably forwarded by somebody trying to get on Trump's short list for an appointment. Furthermore there is not one thing in Trump's presidential campaign that can be pointed out as an example of Trumps obsession with winning .
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    Schmidt Wrote:

    Exactly a year ago I wrote a blog article stating that there was a "method to Trump's madness". I haven't seen anything to change my mind. Trump is obsessed with "winning". What I wrote a year ago (Feb 20, 2017):

    I agree he is obsessed with winning, and his playbook is rather simple "There are no rules". Lieing, cheating, stealing, etc are acceptable tools to winning.

    trump: i won!
    others: you cheated and lied.
    trump: i won!
    others: by definition, cheating disqualifies you from winning.
    trump: i won!

    You get the idea. The bottom line is being declared "The Winner"; how he got there is irrelevant from trump's perspective.

    And to make it even more bizarre, he uses standard rules and boundaries against others, but those expectations do not apply to trump. He will lie, cheat, steal, knowing that others will not go that far\low to be declared the winner. If he is caught, his response is to always deny, and never reveal\admit practices that are consider wrong\bad\illegal\etc that gives him the title of "The Winner". And if caught cheating to win, blame the those who did not win. Make them the target.

    Why does his base value and admit these practices? It may come down to the simple fact he won, and he is on their side.

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    Predictions are difficult. But here goes.

    In no particular order:

    1) Trump will not be impeached and will not resign. The sole caveat is a smoking gun at which point he might resign. However the Pharisaical Right having anointed him as God’s Chosen One will push back and unless the Dems control the House or enough Republicans grow a set it won’t matter. Resignation would have to be justified in his so-called brain.

    2) The Dems will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and not just fail to take the House but actually increase their deficit in the Senate. They simply do not understand blood sport which passes as politics.

    3) The stock market will drift around, sometimes up, sometimes down. Growth will continue to be near zero as GDP minus inflation is less than 1%.

    4) Unemployment, real unemployment, will start to rise. The gig economy will start to show signs of breaking down. Concerns, perceived as opposed to real, regarding national debt will result in more austerity forcing the rise in unemployment.

    5) Public unions will be all but eliminated.

    6) As Trump will remain in office his re-election bid will commence. (2020 prediction: he will win the electoral vote again as massive voter suppression paves the way.)

    7) Upwards of 300+ school shootings with 3+ children killed will occur. This will not be inspite of an increased presence of weapons in schools as pushed by law and signed by Trump but because of it. Someone, somewhere will shoot and kill Wayne LaPierre as a result of their child being killed at school.

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    Schmidt Wrote:

    Chet -- The President of the United States can take unilateral actions such as rescinding executive actions by the prior presidents, but he cannot actions against laws passed by Congress. The phase out schedule of the incandescent bulbs was a part of Congressional legislation signed into law by then President Bush.

    You didn't say where you got the statement in quotes above so I googled it and found it in the Daily Caller and also InfoWars. I will reiterate. Obama could not do anything unilaterally on this law because it was Congress who passed it. The Daily Caller, Infowars and you are all wrong in that respect. Find another source for your information.

    Boy you sure are ready to join with the far right and Trump in blaming Obama for everything.

    Why We Need the Individual Mandate
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    Conservatives began discussing repealing controversial elements of the Patient
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    americanprogress.org/issues/healthcare/...

    americanprogress.org

    The Center for American Progress is a progressive public policy research and advocacy organization. According to CAP, the center is "dedicated to improving the lives of all Americans, through bold, ... Wikipedia

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    Lonely Bird, I am about the polar opposite of your predictions. You're suggesting that trump has the all the abilities, awareness, and political power to do anything he wants and there is nothing that can stop him except for what you pointed out.

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    wwjd Wrote:

    Lonely Bird, I am about the polar opposite of your predictions. You're suggesting that trump has the all the abilities, awareness, and political power to do anything he wants and there is nothing that can stop him except for what you pointed out.

    I agree with lonely; it is quite simple: the bureaucracy here will be the obstacle as well the missing "black and white laws" needed to be able to remove him.; there is no unity in either party, thus Trump can do whatever he likes because he breaks every "rule" and "law" and nobody "blinks". Neither the "evangelicals" will change their "indoctrinated" minds. Let alone the "gun" toting crowd. Thus my prediction is that the "shit" will go on for a long time, just like "lonely" predicted.
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    wwjd Wrote:

    Lonely Bird, I am about the polar opposite of your predictions. You're suggesting that trump has the all the abilities, awareness, and political power to do anything he wants and there is nothing that can stop him except for what you pointed out.

    Nah. I am counting, so to speak, on the stupidity of the American electorate. That Trump was even elected underscores how damn stupid the electorate is. Yes, I know he didn’t win the popular vote. Yet 60+ million people voted for him. Think about that for a minute. Granted the Republican Party has truckloads of extremists still there are some at least reasonably sane appearing individuals among them. What happens? They nominate this complete idiot. Then enough people in enough states get him elected. Trump was right when he said he could shoot someone and not lose votes.

    The bottom line is citizenship is hard. The American people do not, in general, give a damn about doing the job, about doing the thing that is their responsibility. So we end up with candidates and then presidents from Reagan to Trump. That is stunningly, amazingly pathetic.

    As for economics the Republican Party knows less than the Democratic Party but both are hostage to failed economic theology. And the electorate’s understanding of economics wouldn’t fill a thimble.