McConnell, one of the most high-profile and influential Republicans of the past half-century, is seeking a sixth term to the US Senate. He's also one of the most reviled and despised Republican figures among Democrats, making Kentucky's Senate election one of the most highly-watched races of the year.
Currently, the US Senate is made up of 53 Republicans, 45 Democrats, and two independents that caucus with Democrats, winning that Democrats need to win back a net total of four seats to have a 51-seat majority (if Biden wins, his vice president would also serve as president of the Senate and would be a tie-breaker vote).
Not only does not McConnell have a formidable track record and unparalleled stature in the state, but on a demographic level, Kentucky isn't trending Democratic at a rate that could put McConnell in serious danger this year.
The state largely doesn't fit the demographic profile of many of the other formerly deep-red states like Arizona, Georgia, and Texas that are now trending purple thanks to sizeable blocs of college-educated voters swinging to the Democrats.
(If you are wondering how McConnell keeps getting elected, consider the fact that Kentucky is one of the LEAST EDUCATED states in the country.
More than one in 10 Kentucky households earned less than $10,000 in 2013, versus 7.6% of households across the U.S. Additionally, 18.8% of residents lived below the poverty level, the sixth highest rate nationally. Poverty in the state may be due at least in part to low rates of educational attainment. Even those who pursued higher education poverty levels were more likely than most similarly-educated Americans to live below the poverty line. Of the less than 23% of residents who had attained at least a bachelor’s degree in 2013, 13.6% lived in poverty, among the worst rates nationwide.)
McConnell defeated Alison Lundergan Grimes, the 2014 Democratic nominee, by 16 percentage points six years ago, and Trump carried the state by a nearly 30-point margin in the 2016 election.
The money race: McGrath has raised over $46 million and has $16.2 million in cash on hand, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. McConnell has raised over $36 million and has $16.6 million in cash on hand.
The most recent poll conducted by Morning Consult from September 11 to 20 found McConnell ahead by 15 points among likely voters, earning 52% of respondents' support compared to 37% for McGrath.
Another survey of the race conducted by Quinnipiac University from September 10 to 14 found McConnell leading McGrath by 12 percentage points, 53% to 41%, among likely voters.
If the Democrats don't regain control of the Senate, McConnell will continue to obstruct everything that comes his way.
A 2012 poll and a 2016 poll each found that McConnell had the lowest home-state approval rating of any sitting senator. With a 49% disapproval rate in 2017, McConnell had the highest disapproval rating of all senators - but he is still likely to get re-elected.
In May 2019, McConnell's brother-in-law Gordon Hartogensis, who is married to Chao's sister Grace, was confirmed by the U.S. Senate as director of the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation (PBGC), a part of the Labor Department. McConnell voted to confirm. McConnell's wife, Elaine Chao, was head of the Labor Department from 2001-2009.
McConnell will be 79 years old next February, and he had triple bypass surgery in 2003. The best we can all hope for is that he dies in his sleep.