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Paul Krugman's take on "Fake Policy"

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  • Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Colorado Springs, CO
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    Paul Krugman, January 6, 2017: The Age of Fake Policy

    Paul Krugman in an oped article in the NYT hit on a topic that we have discussed before, but Krugman does it better. His lead paragraph:

    "On Thursday, at a rough estimate, 75,000 Americans were laid off or fired by their employers. Some of those workers will find good new jobs, but many will end up earning less, and some will remain unemployed for months or years."

    Yes it's absolutely true that some 75,000 Americans were laid off or fired on Thursday, and the media didn't notice. That's because the job loss numbers are buried in the overall jobs numbers, which only highlight the net difference between jobs lost and jobs gained. Taking December as a whole, some 156,000 more job were added than lost but overall employment was at 145,000,000 in a $19,000,000, 000, 000 economy. That's $19 trillion for those who don't like all those zeros.

    Trump brags about saving a few hundred jobs at both Carrier and Ford, but in the bigger picture it amounts to just 0.00001 percent of our total employment. Krugman calls it Fake Policy to hype meaningless numbers, and the media follows having no concept of the numbers in the bigger picture. Fake Policy is the natural counterpart to Fake Populism.

  • Strongly Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Pensacola, FL
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    The biggest fake that will hit the fan is the lots of good paying jobs. Trump subscribes to tax cutting trickle down prosperity. Whatever the excuse for not producing lots of good paying jobs will be a classical textbook double talk. Lots of good paying jobs will require a sizable investment from a market that is happily smug dancing around 20,000 with almost no jobs investing at all.
  • Center Left
    Independent
    Central, FL
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    Chet, You have things that you fixate on. The jobs promise seems to concern you. I am going to tell you that he lied about 500 things. This one is no more or less than another. It matters to the large groups who want it to be true. He is a manipulative opertunist.
  • Strongly Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Pensacola, FL
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    TJ, Most people will just see the difference between not raising the minimum wage and then promising good paying jobs as an act of generosity. But promising good paying jobs is an impossibility according to his documented belief that cheap labor is the way to get those jobs back. Hopefully somebody will call him on it when the reality of lots of good paying jobs doesn't materialize. He has said wages and taxes are too high. Says that cutting taxes is the way to spur jobs producing investments. But nothing could be further from the truth. Cutting taxes will create a windfall for the upper .001 but in a way that costs lower classes. Historically and fundamentally tax cuts are followed by recessions. Recessions are windfalls to certain income brackets because the result is a market drop that lets assets get bought up at bargain prices. Remember that he is a fan of housing collapses and that is because he and his ilk can buy assets at artificially low prices. An examination of his low paying good paying jobs contradiction shows exactly who he will make America Great Again ....... for.

  • Independent
    Ft.myers, FL
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    Chet Ruminski Wrote:

    TJ, Most people will just see the difference between not raising the minimum wage and then promising good paying jobs as an act of generosity. But promising good paying jobs is an impossibility according to his documented belief that cheap labor is the way to get those jobs back. Hopefully somebody will call him on it when the reality of lots of good paying jobs doesn't materialize. He has said wages and taxes are too high. Says that cutting taxes is the way to spur jobs producing investments. But nothing could be further from the truth. Cutting taxes will create a windfall for the upper .001 but in a way that costs lower classes. Historically and fundamentally tax cuts are followed by recessions. Recessions are windfalls to certain income brackets because the result is a market drop that lets assets get bought up at bargain prices. Remember that he is a fan of housing collapses and that is because he and his ilk can buy assets at artificially low prices. An examination of his low paying good paying jobs contradiction shows exactly who he will make America Great Again ....... for.

    Yes Chet, you paint the correct picture; my feeling is indeed that taxes have little influence on job growth. It is as many others said that other influences like, industry type and technology advances (robotism) changes the job market more than taxes. For instance Trump has no clue about that even in an GM car most electronic parts and plenty other parts are imported thus half the car is actually not made here. This applies to just about everything we use like washing machines, home electronics even lots of light bulbs are not produced here. So if he wants to put tariffs on imports that will affect just about everything we use. Right now here in FL most of the veggies come now from Peru, what a joke. Thus if you look at the whole picture of the economy then if you tinker with it like Trump wants to do, then indeed at an given moment the bottom will fall out. Result RECESSION. His idea's will certainly have an huge negative effect on the people who voted for him.
  • Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Colorado Springs, CO
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    Chet Ruminski Wrote: The biggest fake that will hit the fan is the lots of good paying jobs. Trump subscribes to tax cutting trickle down prosperity. Whatever the excuse for not producing lots of good paying jobs will be a classical textbook double talk. Lots of good paying jobs will require a sizable investment from a market that is happily smug dancing around 20,000 with almost no jobs investing at all.

    Chet -- When you say "almost no jobs investing at all" you are missing the point of my post. Taking Krugman's "75,000 Americans laid off or fired" as being typical of our economy for anyone day, that means for a typical month like December some 2.33 million Americans were laid off or fired. That's a huge number for one month. Yet we also know that a net 156,000 jobs were added to the payrolls in December, or more accurately some 2.48 million jobs in total were added in December. That's even a bigger number...new investment that create jobs.

    The numbers demonstrate the changing demographics, shifting populations, and market forces at work across the country. As the population ages, certain neighborhoods or communities become older, schools close, and restaurants and shops close or adapt to the needs of their older customers. People and businesses relocate to parts of the town or different cities which have a younger and more vibrant demographic. In other words, they migrate. Out with the old...in with the new.

    In the neighborhood that I live in there used to be kids up and down the street. Now there are next to none, except for one couple who recently moved in across the street with two preschool age kids . On Halloween we sometimes get just one trick-or-treater instead of dozens. My neighbors are getting older...senior citizens.

    On the other side of town, homes and schools are being built at a rapid pace. Small strip malls are being built. New restaurants are opening, new super markets are opening -- it is growing while my neighborhood is stagnant. That analogy can be applied to a bigger geographical area...the country as a whole.

    The US economy is thriving and those who choose to follow the money into these new centers of prosperity can find that there are opportunities to share in that prosperity. Those who stay behind, are often left behind...unless they can find ways to revitalize their communities. My city is growing, but I know that our gain is at the expense of some other city that is declining.

    That's the way market economies work. On the other hand, an economy controlled by a centralized government such as China can find investments made in entire cities, which remain almost empty of people.

  • Center Left
    Independent
    Central, FL
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    The Chinese building empty cities is insane and helps few. It's a good example of how with extreme (govt) wealth, You can do many things. How do you put a price on a photo op.
  • Independent
    Ft.myers, FL
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    Yes Schmidt you paint the right picture; indeed that is the case if an neighborhood gets depleted of youth. You can't change that situation. However why did I never noticed that in Europe? The mixture there of young and old just about always stays the same; older houses sell as good as newer one's. I bought there an house built in the 1930's and remodeled it and sold it for double the price. But here (FL) I'm in this house built in 1986 at an super location close to all stadiums, airport, beaches etc. which is totally up to date with all stainless, granite modern kitchen, luxury bathrooms with free standing glass huge shower and jacuzzi all in travertin tiling etc. as well an huge 10ft deep kidney shaped pool and free yard on an 18 hole golfcourse and I get 10 years later less money for it then when I bought it. Strange country indeed, however of the 350 plus houses here only about 2 are for sale; yes fewer kids here as well, because it is FL (retirement area)
  • Strongly Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Pensacola, FL
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    Schmidt Wrote:
    Chet Ruminski Wrote: The biggest fake that will hit the fan is the lots of good paying jobs. Trump subscribes to tax cutting trickle down prosperity. Whatever the excuse for not producing lots of good paying jobs will be a classical textbook double talk. Lots of good paying jobs will require a sizable investment from a market that is happily smug dancing around 20,000 with almost no jobs investing at all.

    Chet -- When you say "almost no jobs investing at all" you are missing the point of my post. Taking Krugman's "75,000 Americans laid off or fired" as being typical of our economy for anyone day, that means for a typical month like December some 2.33 million Americans were laid off or fired. That's a huge number for one month. Yet we also know that a net 156,000 jobs were added to the payrolls in December, or more accurately some 2.48 million jobs in total were added in December. That's even a bigger number...new investment that create jobs.

    The numbers demonstrate the changing demographics, shifting populations, and market forces at work across the country. As the population ages, certain neighborhoods or communities become older, schools close, and restaurants and shops close or adapt to the needs of their older customers. People and businesses relocate to parts of the town or different cities which have a younger and more vibrant demographic. In other words, they migrate. Out with the old...in with the new.

    In the neighborhood that I live in there used to be kids up and down the street. Now there are next to none, except for one couple who recently moved in across the street with two preschool age kids . On Halloween we sometimes get just one trick-or-treater instead of dozens. My neighbors are getting older...senior citizens.

    On the other side of town, homes and schools are being built at a rapid pace. Small strip malls are being built. New restaurants are opening, new super markets are opening -- it is growing while my neighborhood is stagnant. That analogy can be applied to a bigger geographical area...the country as a whole.

    The US economy is thriving and those who choose to follow the money into these new centers of prosperity can find that there are opportunities to share in that prosperity. Those who stay behind, are often left behind...unless they can find ways to revitalize their communities. My city is growing, but I know that our gain is at the expense of some other city that is declining.

    That's the way market economies work. On the other hand, an economy controlled by a centralized government such as China can find investments made in entire cities, which remain almost empty of people.

    Schmidt, You are viewing our system as zero sum. For every job lost a new job is created. The forum appears to accept that 4.5 unemployment rate substantiates zero sum. Hillary started the campaign based on good employment but Trump won promising lots of good paying jobs. I will research to see if people are better off now more than they were 8 years ago.
  • Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Colorado Springs, CO
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    Chet-- I have never, never said or implied that the job market is a zero sum game. I don't know where you got that idea. December marks 75 consecutive months of jobs growth where the difference between the millions of jobs lost each month has been exceeded by the millions of jobs gained...some 16 million more jobs in total. Even counting the period of the Great Recession where jobs were being lost at a faster rate (a net of 4 million jobs was lost in the Great Recession) we are much better off than we were eight years ago by some 11 million jobs. That's a fact.

    Research it.

  • Strongly Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Pensacola, FL
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    Schmidt Wrote:
    Chet Ruminski Wrote: The biggest fake that will hit the fan is the lots of good paying jobs. Trump subscribes to tax cutting trickle down prosperity. Whatever the excuse for not producing lots of good paying jobs will be a classical textbook double talk. Lots of good paying jobs will require a sizable investment from a market that is happily smug dancing around 20,000 with almost no jobs investing at all.

    Chet -- When you say "almost no jobs investing at all" you are missing the point of my post. Taking Krugman's "75,000 Americans laid off or fired" as being typical of our economy for anyone day, that means for a typical month like December some 2.33 million Americans were laid off or fired. That's a huge number for one month. Yet we also know that a net 156,000 jobs were added to the payrolls in December, or more accurately some 2.48 million jobs in total were added in December. That's even a bigger number...new investment that create jobs.

    The numbers demonstrate the changing demographics, shifting populations, and market forces at work across the country. As the population ages, certain neighborhoods or communities become older, schools close, and restaurants and shops close or adapt to the needs of their older customers. People and businesses relocate to parts of the town or different cities which have a younger and more vibrant demographic. In other words, they migrate. Out with the old...in with the new.

    In the neighborhood that I live in there used to be kids up and down the street. Now there are next to none, except for one couple who recently moved in across the street with two preschool age kids . On Halloween we sometimes get just one trick-or-treater instead of dozens. My neighbors are getting older...senior citizens.

    On the other side of town, homes and schools are being built at a rapid pace. Small strip malls are being built. New restaurants are opening, new super markets are opening -- it is growing while my neighborhood is stagnant. That analogy can be applied to a bigger geographical area...the country as a whole.

    The US economy is thriving and those who choose to follow the money into these new centers of prosperity can find that there are opportunities to share in that prosperity. Those who stay behind, are often left behind...unless they can find ways to revitalize their communities. My city is growing, but I know that our gain is at the expense of some other city that is declining.

    That's the way market economies work. On the other hand, an economy controlled by a centralized government such as China can find investments made in entire cities, which remain almost empty of people.

    Schmidt, You are viewing our system as zero sum. For every job lost a new job is created. The forum appears to accept that 4.5 unemployment rate substantiates zero sum. Hillary stagrted the campaign based on good employment but Trump won promising lots of good paying jobs. I will research to see if people are better off now more than they were 8 years ago.
  • Strongly Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Pensacola, FL
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    "I have never, never said or implied that the job market is a zero sum game. I don't know where you got that idea"

    Schmidt, Every time we talk about job losses you say how great the economy is and the losses are balanced out by jobs created in another sector. That was your position at the beginning of the campsign when you were defending Hillary when she said everything is great, just need some incremental fine tuning. You never expressed concern over reports of underemployment and under paying. The self help economy that has and is developing is mimicking the pre fdr days of elderly with no money. All the Uberites et al will end up elderly poor with little or no social security retirement paid into. The country and the economy are not in good shape.

  • Strongly Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Pensacola, FL
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    "The US economy is thriving and those who choose to follow the money into these new centers of prosperity can find that there are opportunities to share in that prosperity."

    A thriving economy with opening prosperity centers doesn't coincide with almost zero growth.

  • Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Colorado Springs, CO
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    US Growth Rate Chart
  • Strongly Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Dallas, TX
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    Schmidt, I'm in the process of writing a critique for the D-Hub of Krugman's "the Deficit Matters Again" post at the NYT.

    He's lost his mind.