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Republicans in the House are lining up once again to repeal ObamaCare (ACA). They've done it over 60 times almost as a daily ritual attaching the words "job killing" to the front. With majorities in both houses of Congress (but not a filibuster proof majority in the Senate) they are planning to use the process of reconciliation to pass it through the Senate, which only requires 51 votes. The Center on Budget Policy and Priorities has provided a basic tutor on the reconciliation process for those interested.
CBPP.Org: Introduction to Budget “Reconciliation”
Trump will most likely sign anything that Congress approves without hesitation. He hates President Obama with a passion. We should expect him to gloat and rub it in when he signs the repeal...several Tweets.
Republicans are eager to get this done quickly calling it their highest priority (actually their second highest after trying to the gut the Ethics Panel). Of course, Republicans have no replacement plans that can be voted on to replace the ACA, but that doesn't matter. They say they'll figure something out in the next few years. It will be called TrumpCare and Trump will go on a victory tour to celebrate the big win for him.
Democrats are rallying around President Obama vowing to fight the Republicans every move. Maybe they'll have a lot to say that can be conveyed to the general public, but they just do not have the votes to stop them. And with opponents living in the Fox News bubble, it is hard to say whether Dem's noise will even make a dent over Trump's Tweets. Trump and Republicans seem to own the messaging.
If the repeal has an automatic future activation date attached to it (e.g. two years), then it will be political hot potato for the next Congressional election in 2018. Chuck Shumer has promised "no compromises" but that is just bluster to the liberal faithful. Republicans can use reconciliation again to pass the new TrumpCare law early in 2018, and take it off the table for election fodder.
The only way Dems can salvage key components of the law is for a massive grassroots protest movements. Sorry liberals. I just don't see that happening. I know you.
That is my somewhat pessimistic (realistic?) view of the future. Trump wins barely. I hope I am wrong.
Elections have consequences.
Thoughts? Give me more hope....
The hospital associations are saying repeal without replacing the Medicare/Medicaid cuts blow a half trillion dollar hole in their budgets over next decade. Would cause the very rationing of healthcare so feared by Republicans.
What Trump and the Republicans will probably do is put an expiration date on Obamacare. If I were them, I would include a status quo clause, such that if a replacement measure is not in place by X date, Obamacare continues. The birth of the new system and the death of Obamacare have to overlap in order for there to be a transition and not complete chaos. Republicans can say 'we want to get it right. We've given ourselves a deadline and more than enough time to find an alternative. We have maintained Obamacare for the good of the nation until then, etc.'
Or they can go the psycho route, repeal rather immediately without replacing, allow the whole thing to collapse, and blame Obama for it. They might not be able to get away with that and keep their seats. They did just elect Donald Trump.
Trump has taken many public positions against Medicare/Medicaid cuts and repeal without replace, but he's already reversed course on multiple campaign positions. There is no certainty in what's going on.