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1964 TV Ad: Confessions of a Republican

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    This is a Lyndon John campaign ad from 1964. It is a Republican supporter talking about why he could not support Barry Goldwater. The ad has parallels today with Donald Trump the front runner instead of Barry Goldwater. It is worth your four minutes of time. I thank Rachel Maddow for playing the ad and interviewing the guy in the ad. It's great.

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    Great stuff, Schmidt !!

    The New York Times this morning had a column that mentioned that a lot of today's Republicans feel the same way about Donald Trump:®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

    To further emphasize how crazy Trump supporters are, one of his supporters just punched the artist who painted "naked Trump" in the face in Los Angeles:

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    the final election results were not pretty in 1964 ..

    Goldwater only captured 10% of the Electoral Votes, and only 39% of the popular voter

    although it's possible that Trump might get a higher percentage of the electoral votes this time, it's extremely unlikely that he could capture more than 39% of the popular vote, since he has criticized virtually everyone who isn't an elderly white Republican male, which includes (but is not limited) to the following list: ....

    women ..
    Mexicans ..
    Muslims ..
    journalists ..
    people of color
    Chinese .....
    people with a college degree ...
    Megyn Kelly (who works for FOX "news")
    Ted Cruz
    John Kasich
    Chris Christie
    the Republican Party

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    Arizona -- If Trump "pivots" as many pundits predict to make him more palatable to establishment Republicans, then party tribalism will trump the anti-Trump feelings. Remember Hillary Clinton's likability numbers are not high either, but amongst Republicans you could say it is more than "unlikable"...for many it is "hate Hillary", just like hate Obama. Emotions rule.

    In the end the popular vote will probably split 48 to 52 for Hillary, and Hillary will also win the electoral college delegate count by a somewhat wider margin. That's the way I see it, unless something big happens, like Hillary being indicted (e-mail server) or a terrorist attack occurs on US soil in mid October. If Hillary is indicted it will be a political inspired event not based on facts.

    I think that is one of the reasons that Bernie is staying in the race up to the convention.