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The Presidential Primary May Effectively be Over After Super Tuesday

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  • Strongly Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Portland, OR
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    I know this is a bold prediction, but I think the Presidential Primary will be pretty much done after Tuesday. That's not because I'm rooting for it to be over (trust me, I'm not), but I think it'll be virtually over because of the way we select our Presidential candidates and how momentum and inevitability begin to take over.

    Simple math shows how both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton will very likely be the nominee of each party. Clinton is fresh off a landslide victory in South Carolina and is leading the polls in nearly every state that heads to the polls on Tuesday. The same is true for Trump, who has a commanding lead in the majority of states that vote on Tuesday. If they both run the table or win the vast majority of states then both of their candidacies are pretty much inevitable.

    And while I know many people don't agree with me, I firmly believe a Trump candidacy guarantees an across the board Democratic landslide in 2016.

    Think of what that could mean for our country moving forward regardless of who's in the White House. A Democratic Senate that can push through multiple Supreme Court appointees; a more equal House of Representatives that reflects our nation more than it currently does; and more state houses swinging back to Democratic control. So for anyone who shudders at the thought of a Trump candidacy, I just want to remind them of what good will come if he actually is the candidate and gets trounced in November.

  • Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Colorado Springs, CO
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    Jared -- I would like to agree with you, but the Republican so called "establishment", the power brokers, haven't yet shown how absolutely ruthless they'll be in trying to stop Trump. The irony is if they don't succeed, it's because of the "hate government" culture they themselves have created during the Obama presidency. We'll see soon enough. A brokered convention is a real possibility, and then who knows what goes on behind those doors when the real "brokered nominee" finally emerges. Kasich?
  • Independent
    Ft.myers, FL
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    Schmidt Wrote: Jared -- I would like to agree with you, but the Republican so called "establishment", the power brokers, haven't yet shown how absolutely ruthless they'll be in trying to stop Trump. The irony is if they don't succeed, it's because of the "hate government" culture they themselves have created during the Obama presidency. We'll see soon enough. A brokered convention is a real possibility, and then who knows what goes on behind those doors when the real "brokered nominee" finally emerges. Kasich?
    Yes Schmidt; it is not over till it is over. What about if someone shoots Trump? I guess we'll have a new civil war. So anything can happen, so I'm not going to predict anything at all, except that I believe Hillary will be the nominee for the Dem's.
  • Strongly Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Portland, OR
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    Schmidt Wrote: Jared -- I would like to agree with you, but the Republican so called "establishment", the power brokers, haven't yet shown how absolutely ruthless they'll be in trying to stop Trump. The irony is if they don't succeed, it's because of the "hate government" culture they themselves have created during the Obama presidency. We'll see soon enough. A brokered convention is a real possibility, and then who knows what goes on behind those doors when the real "brokered nominee" finally emerges. Kasich?

    The main problem here is that it may be too late to stop Trump if he sweeps or even mostly sweeps the Super Tuesday contests. The establishment would have to coalesce around one candidate before March 15th when the primaries begin going "winner take all" and then convince every other candidate to drop out before then.

    Both Cruz and Rubio have ego's that will almost certainly prevent them being willing to drop out and Kasich will undoubtedly stay in until then because he thinks he can win Ohio and Illinois. So the GOP has effectively boxed themselves into a prisoners dilemma. All of them don't want Trump to be the candidate, but all of them think they are the one who can beat Trump one-on-one.

    It'll be interesting to see what happens on Tuesday. I wouldn't be surprised if Cruz dropped out if he loses Texas, but then again nothing surprises me in the GOP primary anymore.

  • Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Colorado Springs, CO
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    Republicans from all over are now attacking Trump in one last ditch effort to stop him from a resounding victory on Super Tuesday. I saw one TV journalist interviewing Trump supporters and asking about the KKK allegations. It didn't seem to bother them. Trump all the way they say. This is a case study for psychologists.
  • Independent
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    Schmidt Wrote: Republicans from all over are now attacking Trump in one last ditch effort to stop him from a resounding victory on Super Tuesday. I saw one TV journalist interviewing Trump supporters and asking about the KKK allegations. It didn't seem to bother them. Trump all the way they say. This is a case study for psychologists.
    To borrow from Parke Godwin: this country is as susceptible to charlatans as a dog is to fleas.
  • Center Left
    Independent
    Central, FL
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    It's 7:35 pm on Super Tuesday. Results are starting to get mentioned on CNN, MSN, FX......News Flash, VT Loves Bernie. It's official. The early results are showing DT doing very well. Most others are just wasting money. Ms. C is doing very well with a small % of votes counted, it seems like 70 - 30, 75 - 25. I guess outside of the NE not everyone is sold yet. It's a long night though..... Texas to follow, that's a big one. Colorado is important as well. We'll see how it plays out.
  • Strongly Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Portland, OR
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    I'm pretty sure my theory was right. As much as I love Bernie, I just don't see a viable path for him. And I don't see anyone beating Trump because the remaining people in the GOP field all think they can beat him, thereby splintering the GOP votes.
  • Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Colorado Springs, CO
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    Washington Post, March 7, 2016: Seeing Trump as vulnerable, GOP elites now eye a contested convention

    The SuperPacs and rich donors are going all out with negative ads on Trump, and as a result his polling numbers in Florida are shrinking with still a week to go before the March 15th big primaries in Florida and Ohio. Mitt Romney and other establishment politicians are endorsing "anybody but Trump". If Trump falls short, say 35-40 percent of the delegates, by losing both Florida and Ohio, then they will take the nomination away from him at the convention. On the other hand, if he gets 45-49 percent before the convention, then the Republicans have a big problem. Trump's hard base of supporters will not sit down quietly. It will be fun to watch.

    But hey, a Ted Cruz versus Hillary Clinton election sounds pretty good to me as well.

  • Independent
    Ft.myers, FL
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    Schmidt I saw some very damaging adds on TV here in FL in which Trump attacked Rubio on his record here as a Senator.

    It shows how Rubio ripped of the government and never attended meetings or voting sessions. Even a new driveway was paid for by government funds etc. So I wonder how damaging this will be for Rubio. Sure if Trump wins FL then we have a new game.

  • Strongly Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Pensacola, FL
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    I don't know how it works now but this is how it used to be. Local politics have support groups just like Mardi Gras and every other local recurring event. In some cases it is the focus of people's lives. In the case of local political party organizations people live for the organization and involvement . The presidential convention is the ultimate social reward, the big party. Delegates are the loyal party workers that do the nitty gritty work for years . Their biggest reward is the convention. These people are the tried and true establishment. The delegates are party loyalist . My guess is that if there is any inkling of a chance to change their candidate commitment they will dump Trump in an avalanche to stay inline with the party elders. A brokered convention is not a long shot. I'll guess that the Delays et al have it figured out to put their choice of a traditional conservative as the Republican Presidential candidate.
  • Strongly Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Portland, OR
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    Dutch Wrote:

    Schmidt I saw some very damaging adds on TV here in FL in which Drumpf attacked Rubio on his record here as a Senator.

    It shows how Rubio ripped of the government and never attended meetings or voting sessions. Even a new driveway was paid for by government funds etc. So I wonder how damaging this will be for Rubio. Sure if Drumpf wins FL then we have a new game.

    If Trump wins Florida then this race is effectively over.

    The only person the Republican establishment hates more than Trump is Ted Cruz. If it comes down to a race between the two of them for the Republican nomination then the Democrats are a virtually guaranteed a victory in November.

  • Liberal Democrat
    Democrat
    Colorado Springs, CO
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    Okay, Bernie Sanders came away with a big upset win in Michigan. Hillary Clinton was heavily favored in the polls right up to the election. What went wrong with the polls? Well maybe it was the debate on Sunday, but Hillary looked strong there as well as Bernie. Probably made little difference. Then I read this from Nate Silver:

    "Michigan has open primaries, and it appears as though some voters who were interested in both races wound up voting on the GOP side. According to exit polls, 7 percent of Michigan Republican primary voters were Democrats; by contrast, 3 percent of voters in the Michigan Democratic primary were Republicans."

    Could a 10 point swing in cross-over votes have swung the win for Sanders? If Hillary supporters believed the polls, would they have been more likely to cross over to impact the Republican election? A smaller portion of Republicans also crossed over to the Democrats. Would they have voted more for Bernie or Hillary?

    Just guessing. The pollsters usually are pretty good, but in this case they missed badly.