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Turkey is trying to provoke a military confrontation with Syria and probably Russia as well, to retain its position. It intends to occupy northern Syria and disrupt communications between Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean and the main bases of the Black Sea Fleet.
Provocations to come
On November 25th, Turkish military forces shelled Syrian territory. Turkey is trying to provoke Syrian a response in order to claim it is “an aggression”.
This will be a pretext to start Turkish military operations in Syria. Turkey is fully preparing for the invasion at present, concentrating forces near military border.
The defense of Syrian Turkmen, and eliminating the source of corrosive Kurdish separatism, is likely to be said the reason for the war. However, the real aims are otherwise.
It is very probable that the conflict, with direct or indirect Russian participation, will lead Turkey to close the Turkish Straits. According to the Montreux Convention Regarding the Regime of the Straits Turkey, has the right to close the straits in the case of war or, if Turkey considers itself be threatened by a real danger of war.
It the case of closing the straits, this will disrupt the maritime means of cooperation between Russian naval forces in the Mediterranean and the main bases of the Black Sea Fleet. It will damage the Russian operation in Syria, and will raise existing Russian-Turkish confrontation to the level of real war.katehon.com/topic/geopolitics/1350-turk...l