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War planning: Now in Theory

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    The possibility of a military conflict between Turkey and Russia is unlikely, although we must calculate the possible scenarios.
    If a Russian jet had been accompanied by fighter aircraft, it is unlikely that Turkey would have decided to shoot down the Su-24 on the 24th of November. The transfer to Syria of S-400 air defense systems could have also taken place sooner. The consequences of military operations is always fraught with unforeseen effects, even with a weak opponent. The fog and friction of war, as Clausewitz explained, is relevant in the 21st century too, even with precision weapons and new methods of intelligence.

    The interests of the global hegemon

    First of all, war is profitable for the US. They are far from Europe and can use it for their own purposes - the military industrial complex (MIC) supports the US economy. Moreover, Washington finds that it is advantageous to restructure the greater Middle East to their needs. Stepping in at the last stage (as was the case in the WWII), the United States will qualify for the role of one of the winners, regardless of the outcome of the war. A number of political forces (neo-conservatives, the liberal interventionists, pro-Israel lobby) in the United States are actively trying to exploit this issue.

    NATO's role

    War, under the auspices of NATO, is a danger for Russia. However the possibility of this is also not clear. Several European countries will not support Turkey's request for assistance. In particular, Greece will come on the side of Russia. Previously, Turkey has repeatedly violated Greek airspace. In 2014 alone, Turkey was documented violating Greek sovereign airspace 2244 times. In addition, EU Member States have their own reasons to punish Turkey for the influx of migrants to Europe which passed through its territory. Therefore, even a discussion within NATO about supporting Turkey will create friction between members of the alliance.

    Direct and indirect actions

    Russia may use economic leverage. Cutting off supplies of gas and oil to Turkey will be come prior to military action. In addition, the Russian side will play Armenia, where a Russian military base is located. Russian support of Kurdish separatists in Turkey will lead to a civil war on the territory of Turkey itself.

    For its part, Turkey will block the Bosphorus and provide military bases for US troops. Ankara also will actively support Ukraine against Russia.

    katehon.com/topic/politics/1336-war-pla...

  • Independent
    Ft.myers, FL
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    Kate, yes "The interest of the global hegemon" piece is correct; however since WWII what you mentioned we did not "win" any wars. Also the issues in that region are not strictly countries with "real" Hitler like army's but just "rebel groups". This kind of warfare is totally underestimated by our generals. Thus I personally think, also in this case, we won't be a winner but a huge looser; let alone on the money side. Our country never has been a "nation" builder; but more like a "nation" ruiner.

    The US never had "colony's" for centuries like the Europeans did; so they are lacking the experience to do so. We barely can run our country in a decent way and refuse to understand on how the rest of the world lives. Pushing our "model" onto others will backfire in a big way; look at Puerto Rico etc. Also having a huge Embassy of 5000 men, like in Iraq, does not help to rebuilt a country; as is already proven. Sorry we are an stupid country, because our leaders listen only to our generals.

  • Independent
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    Dutch Wrote:

    Kate, yes "The interest of the global hegemon" piece is correct; however since WWII what you mentioned we did not "win" any wars. Also the issues in that region are not strictly countries with "real" Hitler like army's but just "rebel groups". This kind of warfare is totally underestimated by our generals. Thus I personally think, also in this case, we won't be a winner but a huge looser; let alone on the money side. Our country never has been a "nation" builder; but more like a "nation" ruiner.

    The US never had "colony's" for centuries like the Europeans did; so they are lacking the experience to do so. We barely can run our country in a decent way and refuse to understand on how the rest of the world lives. Pushing our "model" onto others will backfire in a big way; look at Puerto Rico etc. Also having a huge Embassy of 5000 men, like in Iraq, does not help to rebuilt a country; as is already proven. Sorry we are an stupid country, because our leaders listen only to our generals.

    gotta disagree somewhat dutch. we don't arbitrarily listen to our generals. shinseki got cashiered for stating the need for 400,000 troops in iraq. but we also listen to both the idiot american public who chants "we're #1" and politicians who believe and transmit exceptionalist american mythology.
  • Independent
    Ft.myers, FL
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    lonely bird Wrote:
    Dutch Wrote:

    Kate, yes "The interest of the global hegemon" piece is correct; however since WWII what you mentioned we did not "win" any wars. Also the issues in that region are not strictly countries with "real" Hitler like army's but just "rebel groups". This kind of warfare is totally underestimated by our generals. Thus I personally think, also in this case, we won't be a winner but a huge looser; let alone on the money side. Our country never has been a "nation" builder; but more like a "nation" ruiner.

    The US never had "colony's" for centuries like the Europeans did; so they are lacking the experience to do so. We barely can run our country in a decent way and refuse to understand on how the rest of the world lives. Pushing our "model" onto others will backfire in a big way; look at Puerto Rico etc. Also having a huge Embassy of 5000 men, like in Iraq, does not help to rebuilt a country; as is already proven. Sorry we are an stupid country, because our leaders listen only to our generals.

    gotta disagree somewhat dutch. we don't arbitrarily listen to our generals. shinseki got cashiered for stating the need for 400,000 troops in iraq. but we also listen to both the idiot american public who chants "we're #1" and politicians who believe and transmit exceptionalist american mythology.
    Lonely; sorry "listening" to our generals is of course "broader" than that; in the end our politicians, nor the public decides war actions, but the "999" generals do . ( Of course I used some sarcasm, because I've got the feeling Washington does not dare to go in against the "power houses" called the Pentagon, CIA and others)
  • Independent
    Ft.myers, FL
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    Again "new" ships costing 4.4 Billion each (times 3) has gone to sea for trials here. The funny thing is the GERMAN NAME!! of ZUMWALT. So we have become the "fourth" REIGH; HEIL Hitler . Sure we need this for WWIII, which we will likely start, since we've got to use these things; in the meantime our bridges crumble. But who cares; lets built some toys for the dumb boys. Why did they not name it "Trump I or Cruz I"? Even better the Bismark?

    Largest destroyer built for Navy headed to sea for testing

    The Associated Press - By By DAVID SHARP - Associated Press

    December 7, 2015 3:45pm

    • The first Zumwalt-class destroyer, the USS Zumwalt, the largest ever built for the U.S. Navy, leaves the Kennebec River, Monday, Dec. 7, 2015, in Phippsburg, Maine. The ship is headed out to sea for the first time to undergo sea trials. (AP Photo/Robert F. Bukaty)

      1 of 4

    • The number "1000" on it is wrong; it should be 4.4 billion.

    • It looks more like a civil warship. Any blacks on board?

    • BATH, Maine (AP) — The largest destroyer ever built for the U.S. Navy headed out to sea for the first time Monday, departing from shipbuilder Bath Iron Works and carefully navigating the winding Kennebec River before reaching the open ocean where the ship will undergo sea trials.

    More than 200 shipbuilders, sailors and residents gathered to watch as the futuristic 600-foot, 15,000-ton USS Zumwalt glided past Fort Popham, accompanied by tugboats.

    Kelley Campana, a Bath Iron Works employee, said she had goose bumps and tears in her eyes.

    "This is pretty exciting. It's a great day to be a shipbuilder and to be an American," she said. "It's the first in its class. There's never been anything like it. It looks like the future."

    Larry Harris, a retired Raytheon employee who worked on the ship, watched it depart from Bath.

    "It's as cool as can be. It's nice to see it underway," he said. "Hopefully, it will perform as advertised."

    Bath Iron Works will be testing the ship's performance and making tweaks this winter. The goal is to deliver it to the Navy sometime next year.

    "We are absolutely fired up to see Zumwalt get underway. For the crew and all those involved in designing, building, and readying this fantastic ship, this is a huge milestone," the ship's skipper, Navy Capt. James Kirk, said before the ship departed.

    The ship has electric propulsion, new radar and sonar, powerful missiles and guns, and a stealthy design to reduce its radar signature. Advanced automation will allow the warship to operate with a much smaller crew size than current destroyers.

    All of that innovation has led to construction delays and a growing price tag. The Zumwalt, the first of three ships in the class, will cost at least $4.4 billion.

    The ship looks like nothing ever built at Bath Iron Works.

    The inverse bow juts forward to slice through the waves. Sharp angles deflect enemy radar signals. Radar and antennas are hidden in a composite deckhouse.

    The builder sea trials will answer any questions of seaworthiness for a ship that utilizes a type of hull associated with pre-dreadnought battleships from a century ago.

    Critics say the "tumblehome" hull's sloping shape makes it less stable than conventional hulls, but it contributes to the ship's stealth and the Navy is confident in the design.

    Eric Wertheim, author and editor of the U.S. Naval Institute's "Guide to Combat Fleets of the World," said there's no question the integration of so many new systems from the electric drive to the tumblehome hull carries some level of risk.

    Operational concerns, growing costs and fleet makeup led the Navy to truncate the 32-ship program to three ships, he said. With only three ships, the class of destroyers could become something of a technology demonstration project, he said.

    Just an "demonstration project" ???

    Please give me the barf bucket.

  • Democrat
    Missouri
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    .and the Zumwalt's Captain........James Kirk! way cooool!

    I remember going aboard many a sea worthy Naval vessel (submarines, destroyer, aircraft carriers) and repeating the same sailor courtesy to request permission to step aboard off the gang-plank, "Sir, Permission to come aboard", while saluting our flag at the aft end of the ship. Now I wonder if all sailors say, "Beam me aboard, Scotty".

    Don't have any thought on how this new ship will perform, but it is tech enhanced with many new options. Now comes all the advances in high tech to put all opposition on guard that maybe they better not mess with the United States of America. As can be seen in the waters off Turkey, Russia is pushing its power. Lets get some more of the new ships in the scene with the new aircraft and see if Russia stills likes to play.

    Oh, I like the new Capt. James Kirk..................just way tooo cooool.

  • Liberal
    Independent
    Durham, NH
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    Total waste of money in my humble opinion! The only good thing about it is it provided jobs in Bath ME which is basically the Appalachia of New England plus a lot of free, new technology for big business to get rich off at our expense.
  • Independent
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    AmcmurryFreedom Wrote:

    .and the Zumwalt's Captain........James Kirk! way cooool!

    I remember going aboard many a sea worthy Naval vessel (submarines, destroyer, aircraft carriers) and repeating the same sailor courtesy to request permission to step aboard off the gang-plank, "Sir, Permission to come aboard", while saluting our flag at the aft end of the ship. Now I wonder if all sailors say, "Beam me aboard, Scotty".

    Don't have any thought on how this new ship will perform, but it is tech enhanced with many new options. Now comes all the advances in high tech to put all opposition on guard that maybe they better not mess with the United States of America. As can be seen in the waters off Turkey, Russia is pushing its power. Lets get some more of the new ships in the scene with the new aircraft and see if Russia stills likes to play.

    Oh, I like the new Capt. James Kirk..................just way tooo cooool.

    Russia will still"play." You underestimate nationalist triumphalism. You also underestimate the impact of millennia of history.
  • Independent
    Ft.myers, FL
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    lonely bird Wrote:
    AmcmurryFreedom Wrote:

    .and the Zumwalt's Captain........James Kirk! way cooool!

    I remember going aboard many a sea worthy Naval vessel (submarines, destroyer, aircraft carriers) and repeating the same sailor courtesy to request permission to step aboard off the gang-plank, "Sir, Permission to come aboard", while saluting our flag at the aft end of the ship. Now I wonder if all sailors say, "Beam me aboard, Scotty".

    Don't have any thought on how this new ship will perform, but it is tech enhanced with many new options. Now comes all the advances in high tech to put all opposition on guard that maybe they better not mess with the United States of America. As can be seen in the waters off Turkey, Russia is pushing its power. Lets get some more of the new ships in the scene with the new aircraft and see if Russia stills likes to play.

    Oh, I like the new Capt. James Kirk..................just way tooo cooool.

    Russia will still"play." You underestimate nationalist triumphalism. You also underestimate the impact of millennia of history.
    I said many times AMC lives in la la land; reality never has sunk in; she loves wasting tax money; just the upkeep and modifications will cost millions if not more billions in the end on top of the already ballooned initial price. So actually you have to add the cost of this ship onto every terrorist we kill because it is part of the military overhead. I belief this thing will end up in the scrap yard for sure; just an expensive toy. The sea does not attack you; countries neither; may be only some fanatics. So you don't need ships like this, since we have plenty of nukes and ballistic missiles to defend ourselves. No, we are champions in attacking and ruining our own country; we are killing more Americans at home, than terrorists manage to do. So this ship is a pure a hobby toy. China will keep building their islands and laugh at our so called policing of the seas. Two words says enough: ARROGANT and CHAUVINISTIC..
  • Democrat
    Missouri
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    One thing that Russia has never learned and that is having to support a massive world dominate military force is an extreme burden to the citizens of Russia. The cold war ended mainly by Russia's elite knowing they can no longer maintain their dominance in the world because their beloved Russia was going bankrupt. Now with Putin staring up his bold claims around Russia to seize properties, such as Crimea, and exploring possibilities of seizing parts of contested lands of Turkey by way of Syria, the world sees Russia again going bankrupt. Just last month it was announced how hard it is becoming on the Russian citizen for what Putin's adventures are becoming hardships to their nation.

    One thing Russia cannot do is compete on the same level of the United States. Russia has to seize opportunities in capturing parts of the world, instead of establishing dialog and diplomacy. Russia has a long history of subduing smaller countries by blunt force. In contrast, America does similarly, but with diplomacy and dialog that often gets our nation involved with nations disputes with other nations. This places America at odds for getting into conflicts that helps make a war. That is America's problem, where we don't know how to stop getting involved, but there is an underlying purpose and that is the spread of Democracy and improving the conditions of many a poor country. Identifying with Russia, they use blunt force and "SIEZE" the lands for their own purpose in enhancing their Communism around the world. As can be seen, it's a competing level of politics for who's got the better method of managing the world. It appears America has the upper hand around the world where more countries negotiate better with America than Russia.

    As for Dutch, identifying me as a woman, I laugh whenever I read it. Whenever I do my manly scratch, I'm always reminded how good it feels to be a man. So, I can determine why Dutch thinks I'm a woman maybe how I support women to obtain their level of equality with men. Many on this Hub have responded with anti-women feelings, so I'm not surprised by Dutch thinking I'm a woman simply because I support women. As I heartily desire Hillary the success in receiving the Presidency, I wait for Hillary and Putin to meet as Nation on Nation. Putin will no longer have to look up as he does with Obama. Taller people have that built in intimidation on shorter people. As I know Hillary is a tough negotiator, Putin will more likely be embarrassed as he returns to Russia to meet his peers after meeting with Hillary.

  • Independent
    Ft.myers, FL
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    AmcmurryFreedom Wrote:

    One thing that Russia has never learned and that is having to support a massive world dominate military force is an extreme burden to the citizens of Russia. The cold war ended mainly by Russia's elite knowing they can no longer maintain their dominance in the world because their beloved Russia was going bankrupt. Now with Putin staring up his bold claims around Russia to seize properties, such as Crimea, and exploring possibilities of seizing parts of contested lands of Turkey by way of Syria, the world sees Russia again going bankrupt. Just last month it was announced how hard it is becoming on the Russian citizen for what Putin's adventures are becoming hardships to their nation.

    One thing Russia cannot do is compete on the same level of the United States. Russia has to seize opportunities in capturing parts of the world, instead of establishing dialog and diplomacy. Russia has a long history of subduing smaller countries by blunt force. In contrast, America does similarly, but with diplomacy and dialog that often gets our nation involved with nations disputes with other nations. This places America at odds for getting into conflicts that helps make a war. That is America's problem, where we don't know how to stop getting involved, but there is an underlying purpose and that is the spread of Democracy and improving the conditions of many a poor country. Identifying with Russia, they use blunt force and "SIEZE" the lands for their own purpose in enhancing their Communism around the world. As can be seen, it's a competing level of politics for who's got the better method of managing the world. It appears America has the upper hand around the world where more countries negotiate better with America than Russia.

    As for Dutch, identifying me as a woman, I laugh whenever I read it. Whenever I do my manly scratch, I'm always reminded how good it feels to be a man. So, I can determine why Dutch thinks I'm a woman maybe how I support women to obtain their level of equality with men. Many on this Hub have responded with anti-women feelings, so I'm not surprised by Dutch thinking I'm a woman simply because I support women. As I heartily desire Hillary the success in receiving the Presidency, I wait for Hillary and Putin to meet as Nation on Nation. Putin will no longer have to look up as he does with Obama. Taller people have that built in intimidation on shorter people. As I know Hillary is a tough negotiator, Putin will more likely be embarrassed as he returns to Russia to meet his peers after meeting with Hillary.

    Thanks; again you show you act as a woman; may be you're a cross dresser? Indeed as I said many time you have no clue whatsoever what is happening in the rest of the real world out there; you live in the middle of nowhere in "misery" (Missouri) on an redneck island; you should love Trump the way you write.
  • Democrat
    Missouri
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    Act like a woman??????????? Is that sexist or what? Dutch you have a social problem ridiculing people as something lower than women. Is that your play? I bet most women would have a good argument against your demeaning sexist responses. Where's a moderator when you need one? Anyway this is no way to hijack a thread's subject line. Please keep your ridicule and demeaning dialog on the Republican Hub, which is more appropriate of your appreciations of Trump, Cruz and Christy.

    Now back to more meaningful subject of this Thread, Putin and the latest today. Putin signed into law that Russia will no longer recognize international law. Is this the beginning of Putin protecting Russia from lawsuits on his Nation going bankrupt? Maybe or it could be Putin has future plans that break the back of citizens of Russia and make claims that Russia will no longer pay its bills to other nations. Putin is sneaky. Turkey just needs to lie low and protect its borders. Turkey doesn't have to shoot another Russian jet down, which that jet will fall all by itself from lack of parts and maintenance.

    As most know, Russia has a lot of gold and precious things in storage. Russia will hold out a lot longer before opening the coffers of their wealth. So, be ready to summarize what happens soon after Russia has to use its precious reserves. It's called a massive bankrupt proceeding about to hit the World Court, Russian law or not. World condemnation does has it's way to make a nation change its way. While Turkey waits patiently, I'm still in favor of Ukraine reclaiming Crimea. Will Russia resort to a denominating military presence if that happens or will Russia count it's rubles and think maybe Ukraine can have Crimea?

    I hear the Republican candidates are calling for war and guess who is leading the charge? Watch the debate if you dare, because for many a candidate this is their last chance to have a shout, a ridiculous statement and a circus event of putting their heads in the lions mouth.

  • Independent
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    AmcmurryFreedom Wrote:

    One thing that Russia has never learned and that is having to support a massive world dominate military force is an extreme burden to the citizens of Russia. The cold war ended mainly by Russia's elite knowing they can no longer maintain their dominance in the world because their beloved Russia was going bankrupt. Now with Putin staring up his bold claims around Russia to seize properties, such as Crimea, and exploring possibilities of seizing parts of contested lands of Turkey by way of Syria, the world sees Russia again going bankrupt. Just last month it was announced how hard it is becoming on the Russian citizen for what Putin's adventures are becoming hardships to their nation.

    One thing Russia cannot do is compete on the same level of the United States. Russia has to seize opportunities in capturing parts of the world, instead of establishing dialog and diplomacy. Russia has a long history of subduing smaller countries by blunt force. In contrast, America does similarly, but with diplomacy and dialog that often gets our nation involved with nations disputes with other nations. This places America at odds for getting into conflicts that helps make a war. That is America's problem, where we don't know how to stop getting involved, but there is an underlying purpose and that is the spread of Democracy and improving the conditions of many a poor country. Identifying with Russia, they use blunt force and "SIEZE" the lands for their own purpose in enhancing their Communism around the world. As can be seen, it's a competing level of politics for who's got the better method of managing the world. It appears America has the upper hand around the world where more countries negotiate better with America than Russia.

    As for Dutch, identifying me as a woman, I laugh whenever I read it. Whenever I do my manly scratch, I'm always reminded how good it feels to be a man. So, I can determine why Dutch thinks I'm a woman maybe how I support women to obtain their level of equality with men. Many on this Hub have responded with anti-women feelings, so I'm not surprised by Dutch thinking I'm a woman simply because I support women. As I heartily desire Hillary the success in receiving the Presidency, I wait for Hillary and Putin to meet as Nation on Nation. Putin will no longer have to look up as he does with Obama. Taller people have that built in intimidation on shorter people. As I know Hillary is a tough negotiator, Putin will more likely be embarrassed as he returns to Russia to meet his peers after meeting with Hillary.

    Of course it is hard on the average citizen in Russia. Is that a result of Putin or something else? The answer is "something else." Putin realizes that he must make decisions regarding his country. Since Russian has never had a democratic tradition nor validated democratic institutions an autocrat such as he naturally appeals to the general populace. Russian people are nor more immune to bird's theorem than we are. Beyond that despite your claims to the contrary the U.S. has never been interested in advancing democracy anywhere in the world. Nations do not have values, they have interests. The political economic interests of the U.S. have always revolved around opening markets to our exports especially as the country grew from infancy. As for the Russian political economy the west led by the U.S. failed them miserably when the USSR collapsed. They pushed for massive privatization. The result is practically a oligarchic kleptocracy with the underpinning being a natural resource extractive system. Said system is heavily constricted by fluctuations in commodity prices. Venezuela suffers from the same resource problem. Thus Russians who have a history of empire that glosses over the vast inequality inherent in said history long for return to glory. Putin has foolishly played that card instead of at least attempting the "benevolent dictator" route. Such nationalism makes him more dangerous than you give credit. As the U.S. military is horrifically overextended such nonsense as the destroyer pictured in the previous post (especially one that is designed to be less stable) are signs that this country to suffers from nationalistic triumphalism without the ability to back it up in an era of assymetric warfare.
  • Independent
    Ft.myers, FL
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    Sorry but Russia or China are not intending to invade the US; please note that WE are our worst enemy!!! WE create "fear" and close schools because of "fake" fear. WE created these "terrorist" which word is so "baked in" it makes you sick. For instance at the time the 14 people were killed in San Bernandino; likely in that day 20 or so people were killed US wide by guns, another 30 by cars, as well 30 by cancer, another 10 by suicide or drug overdose. So why not "fear" more for that? This country is so bloody sick even a Carson can not operate on this horrible sick patient. No, lets fix this country first before looking only to the "outside" and point fingers at everybody else. The GOP mentality needs a lot of therapy; which is not available in this country it seems; certainly we are our own biggest enemy for sure, if we continue on this path we should declare war to ourselves.. WE are also guilty by feeding the arms race; which forces others to follow because of FEAR of us. SICK
  • Democrat
    Missouri
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    Lonely Bird quote: "Beyond that despite your claims to the contrary the U.S. has never been interested in advancing democracy anywhere in the world."

    That is false. One of the U.S. diplomatic mission goals is to promote Democracy as freedom from oppressive rule of governments. Democracy is spreading as more countries have been altering their governments to choose a democratic form of policy and law to its citizens. Example, recently are women in Saudi Arabia legally becoming able to vote and place women in office. Although diplomacy is limited in approaches to promoting democracy, it has to show respect to all forms of national forms of government. This is where diplomacy works to achieve relations, negotiations, provide aid, and business opportunity. As U.S. diplomacy works its mission in any nation, it has a golden opportunity to promote democracy and it has success around the world in Asia, Europe, Middle East and the world is watching as the giant China is changing. These changes take decades to show effects of diplomacy promoting democracy.

    Many countries are now entertaining freedoms in the democratic vote, such as Myanmar electing its first woman president. Dropping are the old leaders and dictators ruling over their citizens. So, to say the U.S. has never been interested in advancing democracy is just foolishness and non-intelligent recall of history. One of the biggest reason for fostering democracy is the "Vote", which when allowed to all citizens of a nation can adopt a variety of humane changes in government rule...............that is the U.S. interest in advancing democracy.