Forum Thread

Cease fire in Yemen

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  • TJ
    2015-05-07 03:05:07 PM
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    The Saudis have decided that a short cease fire would be a popular move. I'm very much in favor as many civilians are being killed.
    The Saudis have also suggested a large meeting in Riyadh (of course in Riyadh) to discuss the whole issue. I would think that some would be intrigued
    to have so many decision makers under one roof. ### Increase security immediately ###.
    The cease fire is said to be for the distribution of Humanitarian aid.
    .
    http://www.cnn.com/2015/05/07/middleeast/yemen-violence/
  • johnnycee
    2015-05-07 05:06:34 PM
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    This a good thing and I hope some meaningful advances towards a lasting peace can be achieved during this ceasefire, and I hope also that the aid not be hijacked by any of the combatants.
  • jaredsxtn
    2015-05-07 07:04:12 PM
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    TJ Wrote: The Saudis have decided that a short cease fire would be a popular move. I'm very much in favor as many civilians are being killed.
    The Saudis have also suggested a large meeting in Riyadh (of course in Riyadh) to discuss the whole issue. I would think that some would be intrigued
    to have so many decision makers under one roof. ### Increase security immediately ###.
    The cease fire is said to be for the distribution of Humanitarian aid.
    I'm a little more pessimistic about this proposed cease fire. Five days is an extremely short time and I'm just not sure that Iran and Saudi Arabia are ready to negotiate a concrete deal to end this conflict. Yemen is unfortunately stuck in the cross hairs of a proxy war between the two countries and I don't think that either country is ready to end the hostilities there. Both have way too much to lose if they back down now, so unfortunately I think that things are only going to get far worse before they start to get better.
  • TJ
    2015-05-08 02:15:11 PM
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    I can't imagine Houthi leadership showing up for a meeting in Riyadh. Imagine 3 reserved parking spots and then zoom up 1000 feet and suddenly you see a large target ...... If this were a serious attempt for a meeting it should be nearby (Qatar, UAE, Oman) but not in Saudi. That shows the Saudi's arrogance.

    Imagine the Russia/Iran side of the story. Russia quietly supports Iran and Syria. If they pulled an aircraft carrier into Yemen and suddenly there's air ability on both sides and much stronger weaponry. Net result...... Nobody will stop them. If stopping them was possible, Ukraine would not be on page 6 of the newspaper. 30 seconds later, the price for oil goes up A LOT.......... Happy Russia.
    Of course the question is: Does Russia have a seaworthy aircraft carrier ?

    Okay, the above is an exaggeration but an angle I sometimes thinks about. When will another "World Power" enter the fight.
  • jaredsxtn
    2015-05-08 08:11:16 PM
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    TJ Wrote: Imagine the Russia/Iran side of the story. Russia quietly supports Iran and Syria. If they pulled an aircraft carrier into Yemen and suddenly there's air ability on both sides and much stronger weaponry.
    I don't think Russia is that stupid. They are far out powered by sea and would never risk a hot war with America over a country like Yemen. Putin likes to thump his chest a lot, but America owns the oceans. There is a legitimate debate as to whether that is a good or bad thing, but Russia would never dare challenge America by sea. They know they would lose that battle in a heartbeat.

    TJ Wrote: Net result...... Nobody will stop them. If stopping them was possible, Ukraine would not be on page 6 of the newspaper. 30 seconds later, the price for oil goes up A LOT.......... Happy Russia.

    I think it's important to recognize what Putin's actually done compared to what the former Soviet Union did at the height of the Cold War.

    Putin invaded a small section of a former Soviet state. This former Soviet state just had it's puppet leader deposed. Russia didn't like that their puppet leader was deposed. They took over a small section of this former Soviet state and then wreaked havoc on roughly 1/3-1/2 of said former Soviet state.

    On the other hand, the USSR controlled half of Europe. They didn't just control some small section of one country--they controlled roughly half of Europe as a whole.

    Many of the former Soviet states are now members of NATO and have American troops stationed in them. Ukraine isn't a member of NATO and didn't have any American troops stationed in their country. So Russia is meddling in a former Soviet puppet state where they calculated, correctly, that the West wouldn't stop them.

    And why would they? As much as I am a champion of freedom and democracy, I'm not a huge fan of nuclear war over Ukraine, a country that the vast majority of Americans know nothing about

    TJ Wrote:Of course the question is: Does Russia have a seaworthy aircraft carrier ?

    Russia has 1 aircraft carrier fleet at their disposal. America has 19. That's like bringing a pencil to a rocket propelled grenade fight.
  • Dutch
    2015-05-08 10:24:07 PM
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    jaredsxtn Wrote:
    TJ Wrote: Imagine the Russia/Iran side of the story. Russia quietly supports Iran and Syria. If they pulled an aircraft carrier into Yemen and suddenly there's air ability on both sides and much stronger weaponry.
    I don't think Russia is that stupid. They are far out powered by sea and would never risk a hot war with America over a country like Yemen. Putin likes to thump his chest a lot, but America owns the oceans. There is a legitimate debate as to whether that is a good or bad thing, but Russia would never dare challenge America by sea. They know they would lose that battle in a heartbeat.
    TJ Wrote: Net result...... Nobody will stop them. If stopping them was possible, Ukraine would not be on page 6 of the newspaper. 30 seconds later, the price for oil goes up A LOT.......... Happy Russia.
    I think it's important to recognize what Putin's actually done compared to what the former Soviet Union did at the height of the Cold War.

    Putin invaded a small section of a former Soviet state. This former Soviet state just had it's puppet leader deposed. Russia didn't like that their puppet leader was deposed. They took over a small section of this former Soviet state and then wreaked havoc on roughly 1/3-1/2 of said former Soviet state.

    On the other hand, the USSR controlled half of Europe. They didn't just control some small section of one country--they controlled roughly half of Europe as a whole.

    Many of the former Soviet states are now members of NATO and have American troops stationed in them. Ukraine isn't a member of NATO and didn't have any American troops stationed in their country. So Russia is meddling in a former Soviet puppet state where they calculated, correctly, that the West wouldn't stop them.

    And why would they? As much as I am a champion of freedom and democracy, I'm not a huge fan of nuclear war over Ukraine, a country that the vast majority of Americans know nothing about
    TJ Wrote:Of course the question is: Does Russia have a seaworthy aircraft carrier ?
    Russia has 1 aircraft carrier fleet at their disposal. America has 19. That's like bringing a pencil to a rocket propelled grenade fight.
    Shaking my old head; assumptions, assumptions; Putin is not as stupid as most of our GOP members; he calculates and watches carefully what is happening around him, before he makes any move as well if so covers his ass most of the time; at least he moved out of Afghanistan in time while we got sucked in by our politicians and are there more than 12 years at billions of cost and more than 2500 soldiers life's. Don't under estimate this sly fox. He's got more world experience than any of the "tea party" clan here.
  • lonely bird
    2015-05-09 12:56:15 PM
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    Dutch Wrote:
    jaredsxtn Wrote:
    TJ Wrote: Imagine the Russia/Iran side of the story. Russia quietly supports Iran and Syria. If they pulled an aircraft carrier into Yemen and suddenly there's air ability on both sides and much stronger weaponry.
    I don't think Russia is that stupid. They are far out powered by sea and would never risk a hot war with America over a country like Yemen. Putin likes to thump his chest a lot, but America owns the oceans. There is a legitimate debate as to whether that is a good or bad thing, but Russia would never dare challenge America by sea. They know they would lose that battle in a heartbeat.
    TJ Wrote: Net result...... Nobody will stop them. If stopping them was possible, Ukraine would not be on page 6 of the newspaper. 30 seconds later, the price for oil goes up A LOT.......... Happy Russia.
    I think it's important to recognize what Putin's actually done compared to what the former Soviet Union did at the height of the Cold War.

    Putin invaded a small section of a former Soviet state. This former Soviet state just had it's puppet leader deposed. Russia didn't like that their puppet leader was deposed. They took over a small section of this former Soviet state and then wreaked havoc on roughly 1/3-1/2 of said former Soviet state.

    On the other hand, the USSR controlled half of Europe. They didn't just control some small section of one country--they controlled roughly half of Europe as a whole.

    Many of the former Soviet states are now members of NATO and have American troops stationed in them. Ukraine isn't a member of NATO and didn't have any American troops stationed in their country. So Russia is meddling in a former Soviet puppet state where they calculated, correctly, that the West wouldn't stop them.

    And why would they? As much as I am a champion of freedom and democracy, I'm not a huge fan of nuclear war over Ukraine, a country that the vast majority of Americans know nothing about
    TJ Wrote:Of course the question is: Does Russia have a seaworthy aircraft carrier ?
    Russia has 1 aircraft carrier fleet at their disposal. America has 19. That's like bringing a pencil to a rocket propelled grenade fight.
    Shaking my old head; assumptions, assumptions; Putin is not as stupid as most of our GOP members; he calculates and watches carefully what is happening around him, before he makes any move as well if so covers his ass most of the time; at least he moved out of Afghanistan in time while we got sucked in by our politicians and are there more than 12 years at billions of cost and more than 2500 soldiers life's. Don't under estimate this sly fox. He's got more world experience than any of the "tea party" clan here.
    experience? as an autocrat, yes. does he watch what is happening? of course. just because he is an autocrat doesn't make him stupid, arrogant perhaps but not stupid. the major problem he faces while churning up nationalistic feelings of a greater Russia is his economy is a kleptocracy based upon extractive industries. the old ussr failed because it could not keep up with the gewgaws that people in a "capitalist" society want as well as the so-called freedom to shop for these gewgaws. centrally planned economies and extractive economies have shorter half-lifes. the extractive economies last as long as the resources and as long as some attention is paid to the people whether in the form of nationalism or shelves full of goods. Putin is wasting his time pursuing folly. Instead of building a country he is building his ego and creating another russia that will collapse.
  • jaredsxtn
    2015-05-09 05:09:21 PM
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    Dutch Wrote: Shaking my old head; assumptions, assumptions; Putin is not as stupid as most of our GOP members; he calculates and watches carefully what is happening around him, before he makes any move as well if so covers his ass most of the time;
    I don't think Putin is stupid at all. Actually, I think he's fairly intelligent. And that is why he would never send any Naval forces to the Gulf of Aden. They can wreak havoc in other ways, but they would be absolutely demolished if they tried to fight America by sea.
    Dutch Wrote: at least he moved out of Afghanistan in time while we got sucked in by our politicians and are there more than 12 years at billions of cost and more than 2500 soldiers life's. Don't under estimate this sly fox. He's got more world experience than any of the "tea party" clan here.
    Gorbachev pulled out of Afghanistan, not Putin. Putin was a KGB agent in East Germany when Russia pulled out of Afghanistan.

    And I wouldn't say they got out of Afghanistan in time. They got out of Afghanistan because the USSR was in a free fall.
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