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Will Petro Poroshenko Unite Ukraine and Avoid War With Russia?

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  • Strongly Liberal Democrat
    Portland, OR
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    Petro Poroshenko's resounding victory in the recent Ukrainian elections seems to have made him believe he has a mandate to 'crush the insurgency in the East' and he hasn't taken long to back his words up with action. Only two days after his decisive election, the Ukrainian military led an assault in multiple eastern cities overrun with Russian separatists which killed more than fifty rebels and left numerous more injured. Ukraine has reported zero losses in the recent flare up of hostilities.

    The inevitable next question is "What will Russia do?" Will they risk all out war with Ukraine and usher in a perpetual state of conflict they may never be able to quell? Will they use other means outside of war to 'punish' Poroshenko for his recent offensive? Putin does not like to be humiliated and he will undoubtedly be upset about the recent developments. Regardless of how he feels, I don't know how far he will go militarily. The age old saying 'you break it, you own it' has to be playing on repeat in his head. Will he be willing to risk everything to quell a population that would wage an unending insurgency against his military?

    Has anyone been following the recent developments in the Ukraine? What do you think will happen next? My guess is that Russia will use non-military means to pressure Ukraine, but avoid a direct conflict with them that may wind up costing Russia an untold amount of resources. The only problem is that President Putin is one of the most unreadable leaders in the modern era and no one knows what is going through his head at a given time.
  • Liberal Democrat
    Colorado Springs, CO
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    Yes it's hard to read Putin. He has the Crimea as his most cherished prize so I suppose the good citzens of Russia will hold him dear for that. However, it is hard to see him pushing his boundaries in eastern Ukraine further. If Poroshenko is prepared to give the eastern Ukraine states a certain amount of autonomy, then maybe that's all Putin needs to claim some sort of victory there.

    If his pride and sense of Russian nationalism drive him into doing something stupid, then who knows what will happen.