Since her first running against Republican state Sen. John Blust in Greensboro 1998, Kay Hagan has been a tough competitor for the Democratic party. Will this be the year she is unseated? There are nine polls that show it's a very close race at the moment. Six of the polls show Hagan ahead marginally by 4-5 points, and one shows Tillis ahead with a five point lead. With the results from the pre-polls being so close, it seems to be anyone's game.
Source For Poll Data
There are a few things to keep in mind when thinking of who will actually take the win. Times have been very tough for the Democratic party over the past few years. Rumors of almost losing the Democratic Party's building in Raleigh due to lack of funds, and sexual misconduct scandals will be in the minds of thousands that will placing their vote in this election. Also with Hagan in her first re-election, she is much more vulnerable than Tillis. People tend to pass the buck to current lawmakers of all bad happenings with them in office, and hope and pray for change with newcomers.
Another point against Hagan is being portrayed as a "rubber stamp" for President Obama. Meaning she will do anything he says without question. The problem there is quite obvious. Pres. Obama is not the most liked and supported person here in North Carolina, and people would love to see a change that will take something away from his power. The mindset for those people would be to cast your vote for the Republican Tillis.
The two competitors together have spent an uncanny amount of money on this campaign. Hagan has racked up a bill of around $21 million, while Tillis holds in the $8 million range. These amounts are through mid October. It raises a brow for me that Hagan has spent more than double the amount that Tillis has, and she is only within a few points from him. Most of the funds spent have been used to get voters for each party to the polls.
The thing that surprises me the most is Hagan is reasonably new to this game. It seems you have to be bred to know the ins-and-outs of running for office in every way possible to be successful. Hagan only started in her mid forties. That's not to say she doesn't know her way around a successful campaign. It just makes it that much easier for Tillis to pull a few old-school tricks out of his sleeve.
After much consideration, I will be placing my vote in full favor of Kay Hagan. There is too much on the line at the moment for the Republican - Democratic race. And I honestly think Hagen is a better choice for the state of North Carolina. Please get out and vote today! Remember, your voice is not heard unless you speak it. In this case, check it!
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