Kim Jong Il's Death - Discuss Political Ramifications here

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Forums > All Posts > Kim Jong Il's Death - Discuss Political Ramifications here

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12-18-2011, 11:24 PM

Kosko
Portland, TX
Posts: 1018

So as the news has been reporting, Kim Jong-il has died. I've created this post for those who want to discuss what this means for diplomacy and politics with North Korea in the short and long term.

Will there be any improvements? Will things get worse? Is there a risk that North Korea could do something drastic?

Share your thoughts here on this major news story.

12-20-2011, 10:28 AM

Schmidt
Colorado Springs, CO
Posts: 1058

I think many Americans are in the dark about North Korea. But in following media updates in the time since his death, it would appear that the world doesn't know much either. One can speculate by piecing together a few points from various articles. MSNBC listed 10 Facts that divide North Korea from the world, and you can link to their referenced articles to get more information. I'll highlight a few key points from the linked Economist article, Deprive and Rule, written on September 17th.

The totalitarian regime "groups North Koreans into 51 social categories, graded by loyalty to the regime. Of those groups, 29 are considered to make up an underclass that is hostile or at best ambivalent towards the regime" and mostly live in the countryside.

The Kim family enjoys support in parts of the capital, Pyongyang, where the elites live and enjoy perks, while protected by an overwhelming security apparatus.

Outside of the capitol, "much of the rest of the country is suffering a severe food shortage. On September 9th the UN’s World Food Programme released video images from a trip to the North Korean countryside showing listless orphans, their growth stunted by malnourishment."

"Some children in the North live ferally: they are known as kotjebi, or “fluttering swallows”, and roam in packs. When they cannot steal in the markets, they eat dead dogs and rotten food (reportedly chewing toothpaste in the belief that it prevents food poisoning). Many people, particularly women, live dangerously off the black markets, which have flourished again after an unsuccessful attempt to crack down on trade in hard currency. Most endure hunger at least some of the time."

The question the Economist asks: "So why do they not revolt?"

"The tentative conclusion is that North Korea has not only managed to cut itself off from the world, but also created an internally isolated underclass, mostly in the east, that is left to fend for itself. The underclass’s isolation reduces the burden on the state—and the odds of it rising up in organised fashion to challenge the regime."

I found the Economist article insightful. Read it at the above link.

However, as the article was written three months ago, it doesn't address what will happen next under his 27 year old son, Kim Jong-un. The state distributed video images of the populace mourning Kim Jong-il's death probably reflect the genuine sentiments of the elites, but likely would not be a shared sentiment in the rural areas. Kim Jong-un lacks the experience and grooming for leadership and it is doubtful that he would move the country away from its military and nuclear focus. I suspect it will be business as usual for the next several months with the Chinese perhaps exerting more pressure and influence.

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