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Forums > All Posts > The Libyan address
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2011-03-28 10:02 PM
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CARLITOS BAM-BAM
Dallas, TX
Posts: 897
Many times on this website I have alluded to Obama's "real-idealism."  This is my own name for what I percieve of as Obama's philosophical governing vision.  The Libyan address delivered just a few hours ago was full-on "real-idealism." Full text available here. 
From the speech:


"Of course, there is no question that Libya – and the world – will be better off with Gaddafi out of power. I, along with many other world leaders, have embraced that goal, and will actively pursue it through non-military means. But broadening our military mission to include regime change would be a mistake." 
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This line is obviously going to turn a few heads, considering the role of the current air campaign in supporting rebel advances, reported attacks on the Colonel's compound, and not to mention the ever-present role of the U.S. in Nato, regardless of a stepdown of our 'lead attack' profile.   But consider Obama's words here....he will actively pursue non-military means, and he will not broaden the role of the US military to include regime change.  I don't think any of this precludes regime decapitation strikes, or showing Gaddafi what could be if the allies 'go heavier.'  Sure, in effect, a succesful US led decapitation strike would result in regime change, and seemingly violate Obama's declarations tonight; but the act itself of killing the Colonel via airpower is as vital to protecting civilians, at this point, as it would be necessary for regime change.  Hence, my suspicion is that a stepdown in the US role could provide the coalition with the political flexibility to 'go heavier' on Gaddafi and his regime. 
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"The task that I assigned our forces – to protect the Libyan people from immediate danger, and to establish a No Fly Zone – carries with it a UN mandate and international support. It is also what the Libyan opposition asked us to do. If we tried to overthrow Gaddafi by force, our coalition would splinter. We would likely have to put U.S. troops on the ground, or risk killing many civilians from the air. The dangers faced by our men and women in uniform would be far greater. So would the costs, and our share of the responsibility for what comes next.

To be blunt, we went down that road in Iraq. Thanks to the extraordinary sacrifices of our troops and the determination of our diplomats, we are hopeful about Iraq’s future. But regime change there took eight years, thousands of American and Iraqi lives, and nearly a trillion dollars. That is not something we can afford to repeat in Libya."
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Basically, we cannot explicitly and openly commit to regime change, because we are not in a position to see it through, nor would we be willing to bare the cost of another Iraq if we were able.  Still, I think we are trying to kill Gaddafi, in fact,.....and we should...but we should act within our means.  Non-military means includes engineered assassinations and coups. And the coalition should expand military targeting, outside of a narrow interpretation of the UN mandate, for the sake of rebel support; however, they should not announce this publicly, not for the sake of keeping this from their own publics, but for the sake of strategic ambiguity.  
Why? 1.) We cannot allow the rebels to get ahead of themselves believing the coalition will be there to back them. 
2.) Announcing a NorthernAlliance/NatoAirPower Afghan-style war effort in Libya is likely to inflame and complicate the democratic revolutions taking place in the region, namely by providing headwind support to radical antiwestern opinion.

Hopefully, others will chime in here, and we can have a discussion.   I think the president has handled this crisis brilliantly. 


2011-03-29 10:10 AM

Schmidt
Colorado Springs, CO
Posts: 1058
I'll chime in on what is a controversial topic.  Actually we are dealing with mutiple issues that seem to have gotten convoluted by politicains and the media. I thought Obama's speech was excellent and to the point, but I notice already that some are attacking it, both on the left (Dennis Kucinich) and the right (Fox News, Sarah Palin and others).

First, the humanitarian issue of an imminent onslaught by Gaddafi's against the rebels in Benghazi was real.  I lived in Libya for three years under Gaddafi, and I know how ruthless he is when it comes to threats against his power.  He is a sociopath lacking any kind of empathy.  He seeks vengence against anyone who opposes or crosses him...the Pan Am flight over Scotland should be testament to what he is capable of. He is no different than Saddan Hussein in that respect.

So I fully support what the United Nations, the Arab league, NATO and Obama did to save tens of thousands of lives in Benghazi...it was the right thing to do. Gaddafi's loyal troops and mercenaries would have killed everyone of his opponents, murdering them in a bloody frenzy.  I have no doubt in my mind that he would have carried out these executions any more than Saddam Hussein had no problems in gassing the Kurds.  Those two are made out of the same cloth, and we should not begin to second guess that.

Now, many in Congress are scoring political points because Obama didn't call them back from recess to discuss/debate/approve the planned actions.  Obama did say he consulted with bi-partisan leaders of Congress but didn't name names.  Just how long would it have taken for Congress to fly back to Washington DC and then debate the issue.  Days...weeks...months perhaps? If their track record is any indication, I would say months. However, Obama felt that he was acting within the law, and in any case the urgency of the matter didn't allow it to happen. That point is lost amongst many of the pundits.

The bigger issue that Kaboom addressed is regime change. But regime change should not be a condition of, or linked to the humanitarian effort to implement a no fly zone and stop an imminent massacre in Benghazi.  The UN mandate does not call for regime change, and the coalition forces must be seen to be acting within that narrow UN mandate.  That is also a fact. I agree with Kaboom on that point.  A NorthernAlliance/NatoAirPower Afghan-style war effort in Libya would turn the tables against us and reinforce the Arab view of an imperialist America...and as Kaboom states, would "inflame and complicate the democratic revolutions taking place in the region."

What the United States and its allies choose to do with regard to regime change is entirely separate from the UN mandate, but it is a difficult road to maneuver. Obama chose his words carefully when he said "non-military means."  The alternative of troops on the ground could be another Iraq, and he was right to make that comparison. We do not want to go down that path, both militarily and politically, but regime change can still be a stated goal (Gaddafi must go) without military intervention on the ground.  It happened in Egypt and Tunisia, and it can also happen in Libya if we pull the right strings to squeeze him without the public scrutiny of our every move.  With the no fly zone, the military blockade, his assets frozen, and the international community allied against him, it can happen sooner than later.  However, knowing his mentality, I agree that regime change in his case might have to be the rebels taking him out...somehow.

Regime change might indeed take a while, and no one can forecast how events might unfold.  Those that are asking Obama to spell out how long it will take, how much it will cost and what the "end game is" are right to ask the questions.  It should be on everyone's mind that these actions do have longer term consequences.  The fact is, however, that no one knows for sure, and to demand that crystal ball type of clarity of Obama at this point is a bit naive.  Asking for a type of "line in the sand" in terms of money expended or a time table is premature. Nevertheless, some have already drawn that line.  Dennis Kucinich wants to cut off all funding for the effort NOW.  Others on the right want us to engage in a "boots on the ground" effort with no lines drawn at all...potentially another Iraq.

We should continue to monitor and debate the issues, but I'm afraid that the real issues will be lost in politcal posturing and media sensationalist dialogues.  If anyone has doubts, just listen to Sarah Palin giving her condemnation of Obama's speech last night on Fox News.  I won't even provide the link...she doesn't deserve the publicity.

2011-03-30 08:30 PM
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CARLITOS BAM-BAM
Dallas, TX
Posts: 897
Excellent points, Frank.  Glad to see that we are on the same page.  This Libyan war is not going down well with the folks in my community. And while we've seen several polls now that demonstrate majority public support for the effort, I'm not so sure those numbers will hold. Very few people seem to really have digested it, while left and right anti-Obama opportunists have already flooded the info plane.  
The constitutionality of this war rests on the passage of the 1945 UN participation act, which provides the president with the power to use the force of our military to support the invocation of Article 42 by the UN, without Congress approval beforehand.  If Congress doesn't like that, they need to do their duty and pass a law which limits the president to their liking.  Sure, the president could veto it, but Congress does have overide power. Imagine the liberal-left, voting with the New Right, and erstwhile Democrats who smell a sinking ship, and not just in the quicksand of Libya, but in Obama's relection chances.  Hey the liberal-left and libertarian/"Old Guard"-right made a big stink  about the Patriot Act, imagine if their coalition expanded into the center?  If this war drags on, it's not inconcievable that Congress could override a presidential veto to bring it to an end.

Now, Article 42's invocation does not give Obama the right to end the regime; that's a right that becomes inherent with American lives in harm's way, as a result of our support of Article 42.  Constitutionally, as of now, it's all systems go on regime change; until Congress acts, the ball is in the president's court.  But Obama is right to maintain a strategically sound position for the United States to actively participate in the downfall of the murderous Libyan regime, without overextending ourselves and running afoul of what's in our national interests. Now, a free Libya would benefit the U.S., but  it could also come at a high price that diminishes from the net-strategic gains from Gaddafi's downfall.   That is what happened in Iraq and it cannot be repeated.
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