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Forums > All Posts > Understanding the civil unrest in Egypt
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2011-02-04 10:39 AM

Schmidt
Colorado Springs, CO
Posts: 1058
In another forum post, we dicussed the right wing rhetoric and finger pointing on the causes of civil unrest in Egypt, but we haven't really discussed the more intellectual left and middle views of the causes and solutions.  I think, Kaboom addressed the dilemma facing Obama very well with his take:

"With geo-political concerns outweighing organic develpments, the President faces vast strategic dilemmas. 1.) he can't advocate a destabilizing physical overthrow for obvious geo-political reasons 2.)  He can't appear to be that close to the protest movement for its own sake.   To protect the credibility of the protest movement  as a true organic democratic movement...there needs to be a fair amount of distance between the WH and the protestors, which brings us to 3.) if we're pigeonholded on Egypt, as a promoter of populist street-revolutions against our own allies, this will contribute to further regime destabilization elsewhere by leaders who fear they could be next.  And finally 4.) without some sort of orderly transition of political power, Egyptian military forces are likely to seize power indefinitely and it's not clear who we might be dealing with."

Delving deeper, one can find good articles that address the bigger long term problem, but don't address short term solutions for Obama. Climate Progress, in their February 1st blog, High food prices are contributing to Middle East unrest cite food shortages as one of the drivers of unrest. "That high food prices are historically a major driver of political unrest is pretty much an uncontroversial historical fact. "  They reference recent articles by the Washington Post,  the Guardian, NPR and Slate to reinforce that view. Quoting Slate: "The price of oils, sugar, and cereals have all recently hit new peaks—and those latter prices are especially troubling for Egypt, as the world’s biggest importer of wheat. Egyptians are particularly vulnerable to increases in food prices because they spend an unusually high proportion of their income on food."

A February 4th AlterNet article by Nomi Prins, The Egyptian Uprising is a Direct Response to Ruthless Global Capitalism, puts the blame on "painful deterioration of economic conditions...a country hijacked by a corrupt regime that destabilized its economy through what the CIA termed, "aggressively pursuing economic reforms to attract foreign investment” (in other words, the privatization and sale of its country’s financial system to international sharks).  From 2004 to 2008, as the world economic crisis was being stoked by the U.S. banking system and its rapacious toxic asset machine, Mubarak’s regime was participating in a different way. Mubarak wasn’t pushing subprime loans onto Egyptians; instead, he was embarking on an economic strategy that entailed selling large pieces of Egypt’s banks to the highest international bidder. The result was a veritable grab-fest of foreign bank takeovers in the heart of Cairo."

Prins further states, "While foreign banks were setting up shop, Egypt also eliminated the red tape that came with foreign property investment, through decree number 583. This transformed the country, already a tourist hotspot, into a magnet for global real estate speculation."

Finally, Rhonda Roumani, writing in the Huffington Post, The Revolution in the Nile is 60 Years in the Making, goes back 60 years to a similar protest in which student activists led by Maher Hathout failed in their attempt to unseat Gamal Abdel-Nasser.

"60 years ago, as a young student protestor, Hathout says the scene was almost exactly the same. Thousands of protestors had flooded the same bridge, except then, the protestors were largely students; and, instead of heading to Tahrir Square, their goal was a mile east -- Abdin Square, home to the presidential palace. Then, like now, they demanded that their leader step down."

"Hathout and many of the other protestors, shortly after, were jailed, many for years. The student uprising would be quelled and years of relative quiet would ensue. For years, the Mubarak regime has used fear of Islamic groups both at home and abroad to justify it's autocratic rule. Today, the Muslim Brotherhood is taking a back seat in the protests in Egypt. The protestors on the bridge and at Tahrir Square this week come from all walks of Egyptian society. They are young and old, the impoverished as well as the middle class and some well-healed Egyptians. There are Muslims, Christians -- both religious and secular."

These are just three perspectives on a very complex situation.  Others might cite our brokered deal between Israel and Egypt and the vast amount of American taxpayer money flowing into both countries that is used to buy American made military equipment instead of improving the economic plight of their citizens.

As we hear the media reduce the causes of the protest movement into a series of easy to grasp sound bites, we must realize that the situation is far more complex and goes well beyond the boundaries of Egypt. There are distinguished Middle East scholars that are contributing to the dialogue, but on the right there are also people like John Bolton that is advocating that Israel take advantage of the opportunity and bomb Iran.  And to think Bolton was our ambassador to the UN.

Whatever the causes, the delicate diplomacy in the next several months will be an enormous challenge for all Western countries as they strive for an appearance of "hands off" while the Egyptian people decide their own course of action. We don't need the John Bolton's of this world adding fuel to the fire.

 

2011-02-05 09:57 PM

Schmidt
Colorado Springs, CO
Posts: 1058
According to several news sources, Mubarak has incredible wealth estimated at between $40 billion and $70 billion.  The Guardian says his sons, Gamal and Alaa, are also billionaires.

According to a report last year in the Arabic newspaper Al Khabar, Mubarak has properties in Manhattan and exclusive Beverly Hills addresses on Rodeo Drive....plus accounts in Swiss bank UBS and the Bank of Scotland, part of Lloyds Banking Group.

"There are only sketchy details of exactly where the Mubaraks have generated their wealth and its final destination."

If the numbers are true, then it is hard to see how he could have accumulated that kind of wealth in 30 years without some kind of corruption.  "According to Christopher Davidson, professor of Middle East politics at Durham University, they were able to accumulate wealth through a number of business partnerships with foreign investors and companies, dating back to when he was in the military and in a position to benefit from corporate corruption. Most Gulf states required foreigners give a local business partner a 51% stake in start-up ventures. In Egypt, the figure is commonly nearer 20%, but still gives politicians and close allies in the military a source of huge profits with no initial outlay and little risk."

These numbers are not secret.  There have been reports in the Arab media about them.  It does cast suspicion over why we would call Mubarak a "friend" and continue to make annual foreign aid payments of about $1.3 billion.  Some friend.  It would seem that the only country really defending him now is Israel. Is this the price of peace with Israel...to condone the corruption? Or have we been so influenced by the right wing fear mongering about the Muslim Brotherhood?

I'm sure there is a lot more to this story that we don't know.  Maybe WikiLeaks will reveal more.

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